Match Info

Serie D - Group E - Round 25

Date: 22 February 2026, Sunday


	Ghiviborgo		Follonica Gavorrano

	1	X	2
	2.08	3.2	3.35
	2.1	3.14	3.27
	1.94	3.3	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.04 ↑ (1.97)	3.21 ↑ (3.1)	3.41 ↓ (3.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ghiviborgo
44.8%

Draw
28.4%

Follonica Gavorrano
26.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.3%

28.8%

25.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.6%

27.4%

24.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ghiviborgo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Follonica Gavorrano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ghiviborgo than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Follonica Gavorrano than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

Ghiviborgo - Follonica Gavorrano Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
38', 1 - 0, Baldacci D. ⚽,
38', 2 - 0, Baldacci D. ⚽,
45+6', 2 - 1, Bellini L. ⚽,
2nd Half (4 - 1)
90+2', 3 - 1, ⚽,
90+19', 4 - 1, ⚽,
90+20', 4 - 2, ⚽,
90+20', 5 - 2, ⚽,
90+20', 6 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 10 and 13 in the zone Serie D ~ Group E (Play Out: )).

Ghiviborgo is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Follonica Gavorrano's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Ghiviborgo will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Ghiviborgo won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:0. (average 2:0).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Follonica Gavorrano	6	4	2	0	9:3	6	14
18	Ghiviborgo	6	0	1	5	3:10	-7	1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- GSD Ghiviborgo VDS
Italian Serie D - Group E
15.02.26	Terranuova Traiana - Ghiviborgo	1:1 ✺
08.02.26	Ghiviborgo - Scandicci	1:1 ✺
01.02.26	Poggibonsi - Ghiviborgo	1:0 ✺
25.01.26	Ghiviborgo - Orvietana	1:1 ✺
18.01.26	Tau Altopascio - Ghiviborgo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 TTLTL
- Follonica Gavorrano
Italian Serie D - Group E
15.02.26	Follonica Gavorrano - San Donato Tavarnelle	1:1 ✺
08.02.26	Siena - Follonica Gavorrano	1:0 ✺
01.02.26	Follonica Gavorrano - Prato	2:1 ✺
25.01.26	Terranuova Traiana - Follonica Gavorrano	1:0 ✺
18.01.26	Follonica Gavorrano - Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 TLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group E
19.10.25	Follonica Gavorrano - Ghiviborgo	0:2
06.04.25	Follonica Gavorrano - Ghiviborgo	0:2

Ghiviborgo - Follonica Gavorrano: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide