Match Info

Serie C - Group B - Round 6

Date: 20 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadio Carlo Zecchini (Grosseto)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 252


	Grosseto		Perugia

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.55	3.10	2.40
	2.80	3.10	2.25	Watch
	2.82	3.13	2.64
	2.72	2.96	2.62	Watch
	2.75	2.95	2.60
	2.74	3.35	2.46	Watch
	2.60	3.15	2.50
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.71 ↑ (2.43)	3.11 ↓ (3.24)	2.5 ↓ (2.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Grosseto
33.8%

Draw
29.5%

Perugia
36.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.9%

28.4%

33.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.2%

28.2%

33.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Grosseto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

Perugia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grosseto than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Perugia than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

Grosseto - Perugia Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
35. Marcu A. (G) 91. Pitti E. 27. Brenna D. (C) 23. Ampollini F. 47. Mannelli M. 8. Damiani M. 16. Fiorani M. 11. Fiorini P. 5. Sabattini L. 28. Gaddini M. 9. Gori L.	1. Zelezny R. (G) 4. Tozzuolo A. (C) 6. Angeli M. 5. Stramaccioni D. 14. Quirini E. 8. Ladinetti R. 33. Langella C. 77. Kabashi E. 15. Papazov D. 90. Vergani E. 26. Seha S.
Substitutes
24. Alfani L. 29. Andreoli L. 1. Cabella M. (G) 32. Ciraudo A. 99. Della Mora T. 70. Fabri F. 25. Fantacci T. 17. Gallucci R. 79. Hasani A. 77. Lorenzelli E. 18. Lorenzini J. 10. Mastroianni F. 12. Menicucci D. (G) 19. Montini A. 39. Tosi L.	11. Borsoi M. 10. Canotto L. 20. Carriero G. 7. Cisco A. 31. Conti G. 19. Dottori C. 12. Moro L. (G) 29. Renault G. 28. Riccardi D. 9. Sabbatani A. 55. Strappini S. (G) 30. van Amersfoort P.
Coaches
Indiani P.	Diana A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
27', Papazov D. 🟨,
30', Langella C. 🟨,
36', Pitti E. 🟨,
45+2', 1 - 0, Gori L. ⚽,
45+4', Sabattini L. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
57', Seha S. ↓, Sabbatani A. ↑,
57', Vergani E. ↓, van Amersfoort P. ↑,
60', Papazov D. 🟨,
63', 2 - 0, Gaddini M. ⚽,
65', Langella C. ↓, Carriero G. ↑,
65', Stramaccioni D. ↓, Borsoi M. ↑,
69', Mannelli M. 🟨,
71', Sabattini L. ↓, Fabri F. ↑,
71', Mannelli M. ↓, Montini A. ↑,
74', Gaddini M. ↓, Andreoli L. ↑,
78', Ladinetti R. ↓, Cisco A. ↑,
85', Gori L. ↓, Tosi L. ↑,
85', Fiorini P. ↓, Fantacci T. ↑,
90+4', Brenna D. 🟨,

Preview

An intriguing matchup between an upper-bracket team and a mid-table rival (ranked 6th in the Promotion ~ Serie C ~ Promotion ~ Play Offs (1/32~finals) and 12th).

The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.

Perugia may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 3 head-to-head meetings, Grosseto has recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 5:4 (averaging 1.7:1.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Grosseto against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 2:0 goals.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Grosseto	8	4	3	1	14:7	7	15
6	Perugia	8	4	1	3	9:12	-3	13

Last Results with these Odds

Grosseto - the odds 2.43 are the expected chance of winning is 37.88%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Grosseto
Italian Serie C Group B
16.09.26	Grosseto - Campobasso	2:2 ✺
12.09.26	Pianese - Grosseto	0:0 ✺
Coppa Italia Serie C
09.09.26	Grosseto - Latina	1:4 ✺
Italian Serie C Group B
06.09.26	Grosseto - Sassari Torres	2:0 ✺
29.08.26	Ostia Mare - Grosseto	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 TTLWW
- Perugia Calcio
Italian Serie C Group B
16.09.26	Perugia - Spezia	0:3 ✺
13.09.26	Ravenna - Perugia	3:0 ✺
06.09.26	Perugia - Pineto	2:1 ✺
30.08.26	Vis Pesaro - Perugia	2:2 ✺
23.08.26	Perugia - Ostia Mare	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
02.08.26	Perugia - Grosseto	1:1
Italian Lega Pro C1/B
24.01.14	Perugia - Grosseto	3:2
22.09.13	Grosseto - Perugia	2:0

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