Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie A - Round 3

Date: 20 April 2024, Saturday

Location: Arena do Grêmio (Porto Alegre)

Referee: Vasconcelos B. (Bra)


	Grêmio		Cuiabá

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.3	5.75
	1.75	3.4	5.25
	1.75	3.5	5	Watch
	1.77	3.46	5.55
	1.76	3.46	5.55
	1.75	3.52	5.15	Watch
	1.73	3.3	5.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↑ (1.61)	3.42 ↓ (3.71)	5.35 ↓ (5.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Grêmio
54.4%

Draw
27.8%

Cuiabá
17.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.6%

25.4%

16%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.5%

26.2%

15.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

Cuiabá has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Grêmio, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cuiabá than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	6.7%	13.3%

Grêmio - Cuiabá Predictions

Users Predictions: Grêmio will win (12 of 15 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.76% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Marchesin A. (G) 18. Joao Pedro 53. Gustavo Martins 5. Rodrigo Ely 46. Ze Guilherme 37. Du Queiroz 20. Villasanti M. (C) 10. Cristaldo F. 39. Gustavo Nunes 11. Joao Pedro 7. Soteldo Y.	1. Walter (C) 4. Marllon 34. Bruno Alves 33. Alan Empereur 2. Matheus Alexandre 27. Denilson Alves 88. Fernando Sobral 20. Rikelme 7. Jonathan Cafu 9. Pitta I. 25. Clayson
Substitutes
22. Besozzi L. 97. Caique (G) 17. Dodi 13. Everton Galdino 2. Fabio 36. Nata 14. Nathan 32. Nathan Fernandes 35. Ronald 44. Viery 4. Walter Kannemann 51. Wesley Costa	3. Allyson 22. Derik Lacerda 11. Eliel 44. Gabriel 19. Gimenez L. 8. Guilherme Madruga 18. Lucas Fernandes 30. Lucas Mineiro 97. Luiz Felipe 14. Mateus Pasinato (G) 21. Railan 12. Rhyan (G)
Coaches
Renato Gaucho	Iubel L. F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
12', Denilson Alves 🟨,
15', Fernando Sobral 🟨,
21', Alan Empereur ↓, Gabriel ↑,
42', Du Queiroz 🟨,
43', 1 - 0, Cristaldo F. ⚽, Soteldo Y. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
54', Ze Guilherme ↓, Fabio ↑,
66', Clayson ↓, Luiz Felipe ↑,
67', Jonathan Cafu ↓, Derik Lacerda ↑,
69', Cristaldo F. ↓, Everton Galdino ↑,
69', Joao Pedro ↓, Nathan Fernandes ↑,
69', Denilson Alves ↓, Lucas Fernandes ↑,
78', Everton Galdino 🟨,
79', Pitta I. ↓, Gimenez L. ↑,
79', Fernando Sobral ↓, Lucas Mineiro ↑,
85', Du Queiroz ↓, Dodi ↑,
85', Soteldo Y. ↓, Ronald ↑,
89', Nathan Fernandes 🟨,
90+2', Gustavo Nunes ↓, Nata ↑,
90+5', Walter Kannemann 🟨,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Grêmio won 4.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Recently Cuiabá have a series of guest games.

In this match Grêmio is a favorite.

There will not play in Cuiabá: Denilson Alves (Injury) Ramon (Injury)

Last 7 head-to-head matches Grêmio won 5 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 11-4.

Including matches at home between the teams Grêmio won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 6-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Grêmio RS
Brazilian Serie A
17.04.24	Grêmio - Athletico Paranaense	2:0 ✺
14.04.24	Vasco da Gama - Grêmio	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
09.04.24	Grêmio - Huachipato	0:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
06.04.24	Grêmio - Juventude	3:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
02.04.24	The Strongest - Grêmio	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 WLLWL
- Cuiabá EC
Brazilian Copa Verde
17.04.24	Vila Nova - Cuiabá	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
14.04.24	Athletico Paranaense - Cuiabá	4:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
11.04.24	Metropolitanos - Cuiabá	0:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Matogrossense
06.04.24	União Rondonópolis - Cuiabá	0:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
03.04.24	Cuiabá - Lanús	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
03.09.23	Grêmio - Cuiabá	2:0
30.04.23	Cuiabá - Grêmio	1:2
06.10.21	Grêmio - Cuiabá	2:2
18.08.21	Cuiabá - Grêmio	0:1
Copa do Brasil
18.11.20	Grêmio - Cuiabá	2:0
11.11.20	Cuiabá - Grêmio	1:2

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