Match Info

Gaucho - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 15 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Arena do Grêmio (Porto Alegre)


	Grêmio		Juventude

	1	X	2
	1.45	3.5	7	Watch
	1.47	3.95	6.5	Watch
	1.49	4	6.66
	1.48	4.16	6.5	Watch
	1.44	3.6	6
	1.45	3.78	6.88	Watch
	1.5	3.8	6.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.47 ↑ (1.41)	3.83 ↓ (4.03)	6.6 ↓ (7.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Grêmio
62.3%

Draw
23.9%

Juventude
13.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.2%

22.8%

12.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65.7%

23%

12%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Juventude has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Juventude than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Grêmio - Juventude Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1 - Juventude (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Juventude (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Weverton (G) 18. Joao Pedro 2. Fabian Balbuena 44. Viery 23. Marlon 17. Dodi 29. Arthur Melo (C) 21. Tete 88. Willian 7. Pavon C. 95. Carlos Vinicius	93. Jandrei (G) 97. Gabriel Pinheiro 4. Messias 23. Abner 22. Nathan 44. Mandaca (C) 8. Lucas Mineiro 30. Patryck 17. Castro M. 19. Gabriel Taliari 25. Alisson Safira
Substitutes
77. Andre Henrique 38. Caio Paulista 10. Cristaldo F. 6. Cuellar G. 99. Enamorado J. 12. Gabriel Grando (G) 37. Gabriel Mec 53. Gustavo Martins 40. Jefinho 14. Marcos Rocha 39. Tiago 4. Walter Kannemann	43. Bernardo Toffolo 88. Davi Goes 18. Emerson Galego 70. Juan Christian 53. Kaynan 15. Leo Indio 26. Ly I. 10. Marcos Paulo 14. Mateus Schaffer 7. Pablo Roberto 12. Pedro Rocha (G) 2. Rai Ramos
Coaches
Castro L.	Mauricio Barbieri

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
39', 1 - 0, Tete ⚽, Willian (A),
42', Mandaca 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Willian ↓, Jefinho ↑,
54', Marlon 🟨,
57', 1 - 1, Patryck ⚽,
58', Joao Pedro ↓, Gabriel Mec ↑,
62', Nathan ↓, Rai Ramos ↑,
62', Lucas Mineiro ↓, Leo Indio ↑,
63', Castro M. ↓, Juan Christian ↑,
69', Tete ↓, Enamorado J. ↑,
71', Carlos Vinicius 🟨,
83', Leo Indio 🟥,
86', Gabriel Taliari ↓, Pablo Roberto ↑,
86', Alisson Safira ↓, Ly I. ↑,
89', Enamorado J. 🟨,
90+2', Dodi ↓, Andre Henrique ↑,

Preview

First leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Grêmio won 4.

Grêmio has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Juventude is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Grêmio may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Grêmio is a strong favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Grêmio won 12 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 32:22. (average 1.6:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Grêmio won 8 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 23:9. (average 2.1:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Grêmio RS
Brazilian Serie A
11.02.26	São Paulo - Grêmio	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
07.02.26	Grêmio - Novo Hamburgo	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
04.02.26	Grêmio - Botafogo RJ	5:3 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
31.01.26	Grêmio - Juventude	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
28.01.26	Fluminense - Grêmio	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LWWTL
- EC Juventude
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
09.02.26	Juventude - EC São José Porto Alegre	3:2 ✺
31.01.26	Grêmio - Juventude	1:1 ✺
25.01.26	Juventude - Monsoon	3:0 ✺
22.01.26	Juventude - Caxias	1:0 ✺
17.01.26	Inter Santa Maria - Juventude	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 WTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
31.01.26	Grêmio - Juventude	1:1
Brazilian Serie A
26.10.25	Grêmio - Juventude	3:1
01.06.25	Juventude - Grêmio	0:2
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
01.03.25	Juventude - Grêmio	2:2 penalties
22.02.25	Grêmio - Juventude	2:1
05.02.25	Juventude - Grêmio	2:0
Brazilian Serie A
20.11.24	Grêmio - Juventude	2:2

Upcoming Matches