Match Info

BRAZIL: SERIE B - ROUND 29

Date: 25 September 2023, Monday

Location: Estadio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi (Sao Paulo)

Referee: Gomes A. (Bra)


	Grêmio Novorizontino		ABC

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.25	5	13	Watch
	1.27	5.32	15.88
	1.22	4.4	11
	1.27	5.1	12.75	Watch
	1.28	4.7	12
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.26 ↓ (1.44)	4.9 ↑ (4)	12.93 ↑ (9.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Grêmio Novorizontino
73.9%

Draw
18.9%

ABC
7.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.2%

23.8%

10%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.2%

14.1%

16.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Grêmio Novorizontino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Grêmio Novorizontino's performance.

ABC has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Grêmio Novorizontino than the current prediction. (-34.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Grêmio Novorizontino that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for ABC than the current prediction. (+9.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that ABC could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	0%	12.5%

Grêmio Novorizontino - ABC Predictions

Users Predictions: Grêmio Novorizontino will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
44. Jordi (G) 97. Lepo 37. Cesar Martins 4. Ligger 16. Reverson 5. Geovane 95. Ze Mateus 28. Marlon 7. Douglas Baggio (C) 77. Rodolfo 11. Aylon	1. Michael (G) 51. Alemao 15. Afonso 44. Fabricio 14. Habraao 30. Nathan Melo 20. Ramon 28. Wallace 7. Matheus Anjos 9. Paulo Sergio (C) 26. Anderson Cordeiro
Substitutes
23. Biel 6. Bruno Silva 8. Denner 1. Georgemy (G) 43. Guilherme Matos 18. Jenison 21. Joao Afonso 22. Joaozinho 14. Paulo Eduardo 35. Roberto 17. Romulo 9. Ronaldo	22. Andrey 55. Daniel 97. Evandro 2. Gedeilson 90. Matheus Refundini (G) 75. Maycon Douglas 33. Rodriguez A. 11. Wallyson
Coaches
Eduardo Baptista	Fuchs A.

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will play in this match (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A and 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )).

Recent matches Novorizontino is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

ABC is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

ABC could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Novorizontino is certain favorite.

There will not play in Novorizontino: Denner (Injury) Raul Prata (Injury) Roberto (Injury)

There will not play in ABC: Walfrido (Injury) Wallyson (Injury) Wellington (Injury)

Last 1 head-to-head matches Novorizontino won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Grêmio Novorizontino
Brazilian Serie B
18.09.23	Grêmio Novorizontino - Ceará	4:1 ✺
11.09.23	Avaí - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:0 ✺
30.08.23	Grêmio Novorizontino - Ituano	2:0 ✺
26.08.23	CRB Maceio - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:0 ✺
20.08.23	Grêmio Novorizontino - Chapecoense	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 WLWLL
- ABC FC
Brazilian Serie B
15.09.23	ABC - Sport Recife	0:1 ✺
07.09.23	Tombense - ABC	3:0 ✺
02.09.23	ABC - Sampaio Corrêa	1:1 ✺
28.08.23	Botafogo SP - ABC	0:0 ✺
19.08.23	ABC - CRB Maceio	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 LLTTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
03.06.23	ABC - Grêmio Novorizontino	0:1

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