Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 12

Date: 12 July 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Antonio Guimaraes de Almeida (Tombos)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Sky+, Zapping


	Tombense		ABC

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.25	2.8	3.1
	2.35	2.78	3.05	Watch
	2.47	2.87	3.08
				Watch
	2.25	2.7	3.3
	2.38	2.8	3.11	Watch
	2.12	2.88	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.3 ↑ (2)	2.81 ↓ (3.25)	3.17 ↓ (3.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 7.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tombense
39.3%

Draw
32.2%

ABC
28.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.6%

28%

26.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.9%

26.7%

25.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tombense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Tombense's form might have worsened.

ABC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tombense than the current prediction. (+8.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Tombense, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for ABC than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

Tombense - ABC Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25 - Tombense (1.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tombense (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Matheus Aurelio (G) 11. Anderson Ligeiro 3. Ianson 10. Jefferson Renan 7. Joao Pedro 6. Kaike 2. Leo Pereira 8. Lucas Mila 9. Rafael Silva 5. Rickson 4. Roger Carvalho (C)	12. Pedro Paulo (G) 4. Bruno Bispo (C) 17. Bruno Leite 8. Carlos Eduardo 5. Ezequiel 21. Ian 9. Joaozinho 16. Manoel 7. Matheus Martins 15. Windson 19. Ytalo
Substitutes
22. Adson 17. Andre Cardoso 20. Cleiton 12. Douglas Marques (G) 16. Dudu Mandai 18. Fabricio Dias 15. Fernando 21. Joao Vitor 13. Julio Henrique 19. Jupi 14. Wesley	10. Anderson Rosa 1. Felipe Garcia (G) 20. Jonatha Carlos 25. Juninho 2. Lucas Mota 26. Matheus Rocha 18. Orlando Junior 13. Renato Vischi 11. Wallyson
Coaches
Raul Cabral	Rodrigo Santana

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
19', Leo Pereira 🟨,
24', 1 - 0, Rafael Silva (Pen),
27', Carlos Eduardo 🟨,
29', Bruno Leite 🟨,
31', Leo Pereira 🟨,
37', Rafael Silva ↓, Julio Henrique ↑,
37', Manoel 🟨,
45+1', Ezequiel 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Ezequiel ↓, Matheus Rocha ↑,
46', Bruno Leite ↓, Wallyson ↑,
63', Carlos Eduardo ↓, Juninho ↑,
69', Joao Pedro ↓, Jupi ↑,
71', Rickson ↓, Fabricio Dias ↑,
72', Anderson Rosa 🟨,
74', Manoel ↓, Jonatha Carlos ↑,
82', Ian 🟨,
85', Bruno Bispo 🟨,
90', 1 - 1, Jonatha Carlos ⚽,
90+6', 1 - 2, Ytalo ⚽,
90+6', 🟨,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 14 and 15).

Tombense is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

ABC has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Tombense could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Tombense won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:2. (average 1:0.7).

Including home match between the teams, Tombense won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tombense FC
Brazilian Serie C
07.07.25	Ponte Preta - Tombense	1:0 ✺
29.06.25	Tombense - Náutico Capibaribe	0:2 ✺
15.06.25	Brusque - Tombense	0:0 ✺
01.06.25	Tombense - Anápolis	1:1 ✺
25.05.25	Ypiranga - Tombense	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 LLTTL
- ABC FC
Brazilian Serie C
05.07.25	Confiança - ABC	1:1 ✺
29.06.25	ABC - Ypiranga	0:3 ✺
14.06.25	Ponte Preta - ABC	0:0 ✺
31.05.25	ABC - Náutico Capibaribe	0:0 ✺
24.05.25	Londrina - ABC	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.9 TLTTT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
15.07.24	ABC - Tombense	1:0
Brazilian Serie B
07.09.23	Tombense - ABC	3:0
23.05.23	ABC - Tombense	1:0

Tombense - ABC: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide