Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 2

Date: 19 February 2026, Thursday

Location: Arena da Baixada (Curitiba)

Referee: Pereira R. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Caze TV, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, TV Record, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol
Kosovo	Arena Premium 3
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player


	Athletico Paranaense		Corinthians

	1	X	2
	2.4	2.85	3.2	Watch
	2.52	2.88	3.05	Watch
	2.59	2.98	3.26
	2.62	2.86	3.00	Watch
	2.45	2.9	2.9
	2.57	2.92	3.22	Watch
	2.54	2.9	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.53 ↓ (2.66)	2.9 ↑ (2.88)	3.12 ↑ (2.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Athletico Paranaense
37.3%

Draw
32.5%

Corinthians
30.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35%

32.3%

32.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.2%

32.1%

32.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletico Paranaense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

Corinthians has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletico Paranaense than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Corinthians than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	50%	25%

Athletico Paranaense - Corinthians Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Athletico PR will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). Corinthians will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 45.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 16.1% – 74.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Athletico PR (votes: 1 - 20%). Corinthians (votes: 2 - 40%). Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Corinthians (5.71) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Athletico PR (1.36) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 50%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Athletico PR (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Corinthians (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Santos (C) 29. Benavidez G. 13. Teran C. 4. Arthur Dias 37. Esquivel L. 27. Portilla J. 14. Luiz Gustavo 10. Zapelli B. 7. Mendoza S. 9. Viveros K. 20. Julimar	1. Hugo Souza (G) 2. Matheuzinho 3. Gabriel Paulista 13. Gustavo Henrique 21. Matheus Bidu 35. Charles Rigon 14. Raniele 23. Pereira M. 8. Garro R. (C) 11. Vitinho 10. Depay M.
Substitutes
33. Aguirre F. 48. Bruninho 47. Chiqueti 53. Dudu Kogitzki 5. Felipinho 2. Gilberto Junior 16. Jadson 8. Joao Cruz 3. Leo 6. Leo Derik 21. Leozinho 1. Mycael (G)	29. Allan 49. Andre 5. Andre Ramalho 54. Bahia 19. Carrillo A. 61. Dieguinho 40. Felipe Longo (G) 56. Gui Negao 4. Joao Pedro 31. Kayke 20. Milans P. 18. Pedro Raul
Coaches
Hellmann O.	Dorival Junior

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
14', Matheus Bidu 🟨,
16', Matheuzinho 🟨,
16', Julimar (Penalty Awarded),
21', 0 - 1, Garro R. ⚽,
45+5', Viveros K. 🟨,
45+6', Santos 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Portilla J. ↓, Chiqueti ↑,
61', Garro R. ↓, Gui Negao ↑,
61', Charles Rigon ↓, Allan ↑,
61', Vitinho ↓, Andre ↑,
67', Julimar ↓, Bruninho ↑,
68', Gabriel Paulista 🟨,
70', Esquivel L. ↓, Leo Derik ↑,
75', Pereira M. ↓, Andre Ramalho ↑,
82', Depay M. ↓, Carrillo A. ↑,
82', Zapelli B. ↓, Dudu Kogitzki ↑,
82', Mendoza S. ↓, Joao Cruz ↑,
84', Joao Cruz 🟨,
90+12', Hugo Souza 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Athletico PR won 0.

Athletico PR has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Corinthians is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Athletico PR may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Athletico PR: Renan Peixoto (Injury)

There will not play in Corinthians: Breno Bidon (Inactive) Hugo (Injury) Kaio Cesar (Injury)

There are questionable in Athletico PR: Portilla J. (Injury)

There are questionable in Corinthians: Martinez J. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Athletico PR won 3 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 16:26. (average 0.8:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Athletico PR won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 6:8. (average 0.6:0.8).

Outrights of Brazilian Serie A for now

Athletico-PR: 0.33%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Athletico-PR	29	14	8	7	45:34	11	50
16	Corinthians	29	8	8	13	30:34	-4	32

Last Results with these Odds

Athletico Paranaense - the odds 2.66 are the expected chance of winning is 35.02%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletico Paranaense
Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
15.02.26	Londrina - Athletico Paranaense	2:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
12.02.26	Athletico Paranaense - Santos	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
07.02.26	Foz do Iguaçu - Athletico Paranaense	1:3 ✺
03.02.26	Athletico Paranaense - Foz do Iguaçu	5:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
28.01.26	Internacional RS - Athletico Paranaense	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.9 TWWWW
- Corinthians
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
15.02.26	São Bernardo - Corinthians	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
12.02.26	Corinthians - Red Bull Bragantino	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
08.02.26	Corinthians - Palmeiras	0:1 ✺
05.02.26	Corinthians - Capivariano	3:0 ✺
Supercopa do Brasil
01.02.26	Flamengo - Corinthians	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.2 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Copa do Brasil
10.09.25	Corinthians - Athletico Paranaense	2:0
27.08.25	Athletico Paranaense - Corinthians	0:1
Brazilian Serie A
17.10.24	Corinthians - Athletico Paranaense	5:2
23.06.24	Athletico Paranaense - Corinthians	1:1
01.11.23	Corinthians - Athletico Paranaense	1:0
24.06.23	Athletico Paranaense - Corinthians	1:0
08.10.22	Corinthians - Athletico Paranaense	2:1

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