Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 4

Date: 25 February 2026, Wednesday

Location: Mineirão (Belo Horizonte)

Referee: Lacerda D. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Mexico	Fanatiz
Portugal	Canal 11
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 2
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player
Usa	Fanatiz
World	Onefootball


	Cruzeiro		Corinthians

	1	X	2
	1.66	3.5	5.5	Watch
	1.73	3.7	4.8
	1.7	3.55	4.95	Watch
	1.74	3.63	5.55
	1.73	3.62	5.16	Watch
	1.67	3.3	5
	1.77	3.58	5.36	Watch
	1.9	3.5	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↓ (1.85)	3.55 ↑ (3.33)	5.04 ↑ (4.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cruzeiro
54.5%

Draw
26.7%

Corinthians
18.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.5%

28%

21.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.3%

31.2%

19.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cruzeiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

Corinthians has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cruzeiro than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Corinthians than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70%	20%	10%

Cruzeiro - Corinthians Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Cruzeiro will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Corinthians will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cruzeiro: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Cruzeiro (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Cassio (G) 12. William 15. Fabricio Bruno 25. Villalba L. 6. Kaiki 29. Romero L. 10. Matheus Pereira 16. Lucas Silva (C) 88. Christian 19. Kaio Jorge 11. Gerson	1. Hugo Souza (C) 20. Milans P. 5. Andre Ramalho 4. Joao Pedro 26. Angileri F. 19. Carrillo A. 35. Charles Rigon 14. Raniele 7. Breno Bidon 18. Pedro Raul 11. Vitinho
Substitutes
99. Arroyo K. 20. Bruno Rodrigues 23. Fagner 33. Janderson 77. Japa 43. Joao Marcelo 36. Kaua Prates 8. Matheus Henrique 81. Otavio Costa (G) 22. Villarreal N. 5. Walace 94. Wanderson	29. Allan 49. Andre 10. Depay M. 61. Dieguinho 3. Gabriel Paulista 8. Garro R. 56. Gui Negao 13. Gustavo Henrique 51. Kaue (G) 31. Kayke 21. Matheus Bidu 2. Matheuzinho
Coaches
Tite	Dorival Junior

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
6', William Furtado 🟨,
9', 1 - 0, Matheus Pereira ⚽,
39', Dorival Junior 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Breno Bidon ↓, Dieguinho ↑,
46', Raniele ↓, Andre ↑,
60', Christian ↓, Arroyo K. ↑,
67', Charles Rigon ↓, Garro R. ↑,
67', Vitinho ↓, Allan ↑,
72', Romero L. 🟨,
75', Andre 🟨,
78', Pedro Raul ↓, Depay M. ↑,
79', Kaio Jorge ↓, Bruno Rodrigues ↑,
79', Romero L. ↓, Matheus Henrique ↑,
80', William Furtado 🟨,
82', 1 - 1, Joao Pedro ⚽, Garro R. (A),
87', Dorival Junior 🟨,
90+5', Carrillo A. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cruzeiro won 2.

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

Corinthians may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Cruzeiro is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Cruzeiro: Chico (Injury) Jonathan Jesus (Inactive) Kaua Moraes (Inactive) Marquinhos (Knee Injury) Matheus Cunha (Inactive)

There will not play in Corinthians: Hugo (Injury) Kaio Cesar (Injury) Pereira M. (Injury) Yuri Alberto (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Cruzeiro won 9 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 26:22. (average 1.3:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Cruzeiro won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 17:9. (average 1.5:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Cruzeiro	29	14	6	9	44:40	4	48
16	Corinthians	29	8	8	13	30:34	-4	32

Last Results with these Odds

Corinthians - the odds 4.33 are the expected chance of winning is 21.53%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cruzeiro MG
Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
21.02.26	Pouso Alegre - Cruzeiro	1:2 ✺
14.02.26	URT - Cruzeiro	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
11.02.26	Mirassol - Cruzeiro	2:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
08.02.26	Cruzeiro - América Mineiro	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
05.02.26	Cruzeiro - Coritiba	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 WWTWL
- Corinthians
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
22.02.26	Portuguesa - Corinthians	1:2 penalties ✺
Brazilian Serie A
19.02.26	Athletico Paranaense - Corinthians	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
15.02.26	São Bernardo - Corinthians	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
12.02.26	Corinthians - Red Bull Bragantino	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
08.02.26	Corinthians - Palmeiras	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Copa do Brasil
14.12.25	Corinthians - Cruzeiro	2:2 penalties
10.12.25	Cruzeiro - Corinthians	0:1
Brazilian Serie A
23.11.25	Cruzeiro - Corinthians	3:0
23.07.25	Corinthians - Cruzeiro	0:0
20.11.24	Corinthians - Cruzeiro	2:1
07.07.24	Cruzeiro - Corinthians	3:0
19.08.23	Cruzeiro - Corinthians	1:1

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