Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 24

Date: 23 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Nubank Parque (Sao Paulo)

Referee: Machado B. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Flow Eventos
Austria	Laola1
Ecuador	El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Germany	Laola1, Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Israel	Sport 1
Mexico	Azteca Deportes
North-central-america	Flow Sports 1 Caribbean
Paraguay	Flow Eventos
Portugal	Canal 11
Serbia	Arena Sport 2
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar+ Vamos Bar 2
Turkey	Spor Smart 1
United-kingdom	Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	Flow
Usa	SportsEngine Play
World	TV Globo Internacional


	Palmeiras		Vasco da Gama

	1	X	2
	1.57	3.90	5.50	Watch
	1.63	3.80	5.25
	1.57	3.80	5.80	Watch
	1.64	3.89	6.19
	1.66	3.91	5.26	Watch
	1.61	3.85	6.10
	1.66	4.00	5.64	Watch
	1.61	3.85	5.40
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↑ (1.53)	3.88 ↓ (3.9)	5.64 ↓ (6.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Palmeiras
58.7%

Draw
24.5%

Vasco da Gama
16.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.9%

23.9%

15.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.7%

25.4%

14.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Palmeiras has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Vasco da Gama has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Palmeiras, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vasco da Gama than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Palmeiras - Vasco da Gama Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Palmeiras (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Palmeiras will win (9 of 9 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Carlos Miguel (G) 4. Giay A. 15. Gomez G. (C) 2. Barboza A. 40. Allan Elias 8. Andreas Pereira 17. Marlon Freitas 56. Arthur Gabriel 18. Mauricio 9. Vitor Roque 42. Lopez J.	1. Leo Jardim (G) 96. Paulo Henrique 46. Cuesta C. 30. Robert Renan 66. Cuiabano 5. Sosa S. 28. Adson 3. Tche Tche 23. Thiago Mendes (C) 11. Gomez A. 7. David
Substitutes
11. Arias J. 3. Bruno Fuchs 45. Erick Bele 7. Felipe Anderson 39. Heittor Vinicius 12. Khellven 30. Lucas Evangelista 50. Luis Pacheco 14. Marcelo Lomba (G) 32. Martinez E. 26. Murilo 37. Riquelme Fillipi	80. Andre B. 88. Cauan Barros 9. Colidio F. 13. Daniel Fuzato (G) 18. Hinestroza M. 43. Lucas Freitas 6. Lucas Piton 17. Moreira N. 83. Ramon Rique 82. Riquelme Avellar 2. Rodriguez J. 77. Spinelli C.
Coaches
Abel Ferreira	Emanuel P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
9', Marlon Freitas 🟨,
44', Gomez A. 🟨,
2nd Half (4 - 1)
46', Barboza A. ↓, Murilo ↑,
47', 1 - 0, Lopez J. ⚽, Allan Elias (A),
50', Thiago Mendes 🟨,
51', 2 - 0, Vitor Roque (Penalty Awarded),
56', 3 - 0, Mauricio ⚽, Andreas Pereira (A),
58', Cuiabano ↓, Riquelme Avellar ↑,
58', Thiago Mendes ↓, Ramon Rique ↑,
65', Adson ↓, Moreira N. ↑,
65', David ↓, Colidio F. ↑,
71', Allan Elias ↓, Felipe Anderson ↑,
71', Vitor Roque ↓, Arias J. ↑,
71', Marlon Freitas ↓, Martinez E. ↑,
72', Gomez A. ↓, Hinestroza M. ↑,
83', Robert Renan 🟨,
83', Giay A. ↓, Khellven ↑,
89', 4 - 0, Lopez J. ⚽, Arias J. (A),
90+4', 4 - 1, Colidio F. ⚽,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: ) and 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras won 4.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Vasco may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Palmeiras is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Palmeiras: Jefte (Knee Injury) Paulinho (Muscle Injury) Sosa R. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Vasco: Brenner (Injury) Mateus Carvalho (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Vasco: Jair (Injury)

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras won 11 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 29:15. (average 1.5:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Palmeiras won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 14:5. (average 1.6:0.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Palmeiras	29	17	9	3	48:21	27	60
14	Vasco	29	9	8	12	36:42	-6	35

Last Results with these Odds

Palmeiras - the odds 1.53 are the expected chance of winning is 60.88%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Palmeiras
Copa Libertadores
19.08.26	Cerro Porteño - Palmeiras	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
15.08.26	Fluminense - Palmeiras	3:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
12.08.26	Palmeiras - Cerro Porteño	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
09.08.26	Palmeiras - Internacional RS	0:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
05.08.26	Fortaleza - Palmeiras	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.9 WLTTL
- Vasco da Gama
Copa Sudamericana
20.08.26	Olimpia Asuncion - Vasco da Gama	1:4 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
16.08.26	Vasco da Gama - Santos	0:3 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
13.08.26	Vasco da Gama - Olimpia Asuncion	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
09.08.26	Bahia - Vasco da Gama	0:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
05.08.26	Fluminense - Vasco da Gama	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.7 WLTTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
12.03.26	Vasco da Gama - Palmeiras	2:1
01.10.25	Palmeiras - Vasco da Gama	3:0
04.05.25	Vasco da Gama - Palmeiras	0:1
22.09.24	Vasco da Gama - Palmeiras	0:1
13.06.24	Palmeiras - Vasco da Gama	2:0
27.08.23	Palmeiras - Vasco da Gama	1:0
23.04.23	Vasco da Gama - Palmeiras	2:2

Upcoming Matches