Match Info

Paulista - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 21 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Arena Barueri (Barueri)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	HBO Max, TV Record


	Palmeiras		Capivariano

	1	X	2
	1.13	8	13	Watch
	1.13	7.3	17.5
	1.14	7.35	15.36
	1.2	5.72	19.07	Watch
	1.13	7.5	17
	1.14	9.31	14.4	Watch
	1.17	6.5	16
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.15 ↓ (1.21)	7.38 ↑ (5.34)	16.05 ↑ (13.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Palmeiras
81.5%

Draw
12.7%

Capivariano
5.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

75.9%

17.2%

6.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Palmeiras has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Palmeiras's performance.

Capivariano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

Palmeiras - Capivariano Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Carlos Miguel (G) 12. Khellven 15. Gomez G. (C) 26. Murilo 22. Piquerez J. 40. Allan Elias 8. Andreas Pereira 17. Marlon Freitas 18. Mauricio 9. Vitor Roque 42. Lopez J.	12. Guilherme Nogueira (G) 2. Diogo Mateus 3. Octavio 4. Wendel Lomar 6. Lucas Dias 5. Bruno Silva (C) 8. Thiago Moraes 10. Ravanelli 7. Carlos Eduardo 17. Baianinho 9. Vinicius Popo
Substitutes
11. Arias J. 3. Bruno Fuchs 7. Felipe Anderson 4. Giay A. 6. Jefte 48. Larson 30. Lucas Evangelista 31. Luighi 50. Luis Pacheco 14. Marcelo Lomba (G) 32. Martinez E. 19. Sosa R.	14. Balao 19. Bastos R. 20. Cassio Gabriel 11. Felipe Azevedo 13. Lailton Canabrava 22. Leandrinho 18. Matheus Guilherme 21. Mike 16. Tarcisio 1. Teixeira M. (G) 23. Tiago Santos (G) 15. Vinicius Guedes
Coaches
Abel Ferreira	Sizenando E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
6', 1 - 0, Vitor Roque ⚽,
17', Carlos Eduardo 🟨,
28', Diogo Mateus 🟨,
36', 2 - 0, Vitor Roque ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Carlos Eduardo ↓, Felipe Azevedo ↑,
46', Diogo Mateus ↓, Ricardo Cerqueira ↑,
52', Marlon Freitas 🟨,
70', Ravanelli ↓, Bastos R. ↑,
70', Baianinho ↓, Matheus Guilherme ↑,
78', Allan Elias ↓, Arias J. ↑,
78', Vitor Roque ↓, Sosa R. ↑,
80', Thiago Moraes ↓, Balao ↑,
87', Mauricio ↓, Felipe Anderson ↑,
87', Lopez J. ↓, Lucas Evangelista ↑,
90+2', 3 - 0, Andreas Pereira (Penalty Awarded),
90+4', 4 - 0, Sosa R. ⚽, Felipe Anderson (A),

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Palmeiras is Qualified for Paulista (Play Offs Quarter~finals)

Palmeiras is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Capivariano's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Palmeiras may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Palmeiras is the undeniable favorite.

There will not play in Palmeiras: Figueiredo (Inactive) Paulinho (Leg Injury)

There will not play in Capivariano: Leonan Santos (Red Card)

There are questionable in Palmeiras: Arias J. (Inactive)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:1. (average 3:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Palmeiras won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:1. (average 3:0.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Palmeiras - the odds 1.21 are the expected chance of winning is 75.9%, but this team recently wins 100% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Palmeiras
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
15.02.26	Palmeiras - Guarani	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
12.02.26	Internacional RS - Palmeiras	1:3 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
08.02.26	Corinthians - Palmeiras	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
04.02.26	Palmeiras - Vitória Salvador	5:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
01.02.26	Botafogo SP - Palmeiras	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 TWWWL
- Capivariano FC
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
15.02.26	Botafogo SP - Capivariano	0:1 ✺
08.02.26	Capivariano - Mirassol	1:0 ✺
05.02.26	Corinthians - Capivariano	3:0 ✺
25.01.26	Capivariano - EC Primavera	1:2 ✺
21.01.26	EC Noroeste - Capivariano	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.8 WWLLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
06.03.16	Palmeiras - Capivariano	4:1
28.02.15	Palmeiras - Capivariano	2:0

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