Match Info

Division Profesional - Round 4

Date: 20 April 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Gilberto Parada (Montero)

Referee: Aleman C. (Bol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bolivia	Futbol Canal


	Guabirá		Bolívar

	1	X	2
	3.4	4.2	1.83	Watch
	3.4	3.6	1.82
	3.4	4.1	1.85	Watch
	3.44	4.24	1.88
	3.48	4.16	1.86	Watch
	3.44	3.94	1.86	Watch
	3.4	4.1	1.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.42 ↑ (2.77)	4.05 ↑ (3.58)	1.85 ↓ (2.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Guabirá
27.1%

Draw
22.9%

Bolívar
50.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.5%

25.9%

40.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.2%

24.9%

42.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Guabirá has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Guabirá's form might have worsened.

Bolívar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Bolívar's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Guabirá than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Guabirá, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bolívar than the current prediction. (-7.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Bolívar, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Guabirá - Bolívar Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Cuellar J. (G) 30. Gatti F. 21. Portillo M. 32. Olguin G. 26. Saucedo O. 5. Moreno A. 77. Thiago Ribeiro 6. Anez C. 17. Barco C. 15. Rafinha 9. Veloso F.	33. Lanzillotta F. (G) 22. Rocha Y. 2. Sagredo J. 5. Quinteros J. 4. Sagredo J. 23. Justiniano L. 80. Melgar C. A. 29. Velasquez J. 11. Vaca R. 21. Velasquez J. 77. Romero D.
Substitutes
8. Arano C. P. 28. Baigorria Y. 22. Casavieja L. 12. Ferrel M. (G) 29. Masskooni N. 16. Montero R. 19. Paiva S. 14. Parada J. 7. Peredo G. 10. Sanchez H. 4. Vaca G. 27. Villarroel M.	15. Choque D. 12. Cordano R. (G) 90. Fabio Gomes 35. Freita E. 7. Mena F. 28. Mendez B. 17. Pato Rodriguez 8. Paz L. 14. Robson Matheus 26. Saavedra E. 6. Vaca Moreno E.
Coaches
Carlen R.	Robatto F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
18', Saucedo O. 🟨,
34', Montero R. 🟨,
43', 1 - 0, Rafinha ⚽, Gatti F. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 4)
46', Velasquez J. ↓, Freita E. ↑,
46', Veloso F. ↓, Peredo G. ↑,
46', Barco C. ↓, Vaca G. ↑,
46', Rocha Y. ↓, Pato Rodriguez ↑,
46', Saucedo O. ↓, Baigorria Y. ↑,
50', Sagredo J. ↓, Paz L. ↑,
51', 1 - 1, Velasquez J. ⚽,
63', 1 - 2, Justiniano L. ⚽, Vaca R. (A),
68', Thiago Ribeiro ↓, Arano C. P. ↑,
68', 2 - 2, Rafinha ⚽,
74', Gatti F. 🟨,
78', Moreno A. 🟨,
80', Romero D. ↓, Fabio Gomes ↑,
80', Quinteros J. ↓, Saavedra E. ↑,
81', Rafinha ↓, Masskooni N. ↑,
87', 2 - 3, Fabio Gomes ⚽, Melgar C. A. (A),
89', 2 - 4, Pato Rodriguez ⚽, Velasquez J. (A),

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Guabirá won 1.

Guabirá is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Bolívar is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Bolívar could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Bolívar will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Guabirá won 6 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 14 matches and goals 22:53 (average 1.1:2.7).

Including matches at home between the teams Guabirá won 6 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 17:15 (average 1.7:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Guabirá
Bolivian Division Profesional
14.04.25	Nacional Potosí - Guabirá	3:0 ✺
04.04.25	Guabirá - Aurora	5:2 ✺
28.03.25	Universitario de Vinto - Guabirá	4:2 ✺
Bolivian Torneo Amistoso de Verano
01.03.25	Always Ready - Guabirá	5:0 ✺
26.02.25	Guabirá - Always Ready	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LWLLL
- Bolívar La Paz
Bolivian Division Profesional
12.04.25	Bolívar - Jorge Wilstermann	5:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
09.04.25	Bolívar - Sporting Cristal	3:0 ✺
Bolivian Division Profesional
05.04.25	Real Tomayapo - Bolívar	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
01.04.25	Cerro Porteño - Bolívar	4:2 ✺
Bolivian Division Profesional
28.03.25	Bolívar - Real Oruro	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Bolivian Division Profesional
20.12.24	Bolívar - Guabirá	3:2
22.09.24	Guabirá - Bolívar	0:3
08.07.23	Bolívar - Guabirá	3:1
05.02.23	Guabirá - Bolívar	1:2
19.10.22	Guabirá - Bolívar	2:1
10.08.22	Bolívar - Guabirá	3:0
22.08.21	Bolívar - Guabirá	6:0

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