Match Info

Date: 15 March 2020, Sunday


	Guabirá		Santa Cruz Recife

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.4	3.75	Watch
	1.87	3.5	3.5
	1.93	3.55	3.2
	1.95	3.37	3.12
	2.06	3.54	3.43
	1.95	3.6	3.3
	1.97	3.72	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.94 ↑ (1.79)	3.53 ↓ (3.6)	3.39 ↓ (3.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Guabirá
47.1%

Draw
25.9%

Santa Cruz Recife
27%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.7%

25.3%

24.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.1%

16.5%

36.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Guabirá has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

Santa Cruz Recife has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Guabirá than the current prediction. (-14%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Guabirá that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santa Cruz Recife than the current prediction. (+9.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Santa Cruz Recife could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10.7%	2.3%	87%

Guabirá - Santa Cruz Recife Predictions

Users Predictions: 131 users predict this event. Guabirá will win (votes: 14 - 10.7%). Santa Cruz will win (votes: 114 - 87%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 2.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Santa Cruz: 81.2% – 92.8%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Guabirá
Bolivian Division Profesional
08.03.20	The Strongest - Guabirá	6:2 ✺
03.03.20	Guabirá - Blooming	1:1 ✺
27.02.20	Aurora - Guabirá	2:0 ✺
21.02.20	San Jose Earthquakes - Guabirá	2:2 ✺
15.02.20	Guabirá - Nacional Potosí	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 LTLTW
- Santa Cruz Recife
Brazilian Campeonato Pernambucano
15.03.20	Santa Cruz Recife - Decisão	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
12.03.20	Santa Cruz Recife - Botafogo PB	3:0 ✺
07.03.20	Sport Recife - Santa Cruz Recife	1:0 ✺
Bolivian Division Profesional
06.03.20	Santa Cruz Recife - Nacional Potosí	2:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
04.03.20	Atlético Goianiense - Santa Cruz Recife	2:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WWLWL

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