Match Info

Serie B - Round 19

Date: 1 August 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Jorge Andrade (Azogues)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	Zapping, Zapping Sports
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Gualaceo		Independiente Juniors

	1	X	2
	2.25	2.72	3.30
	2.35	2.81	3.56
	2.34	2.79	3.53	Watch
	2.30	2.65	3.50
	2.41	2.82	3.34
	2.23	2.70	3.30
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.31 ↓ (2.65)	2.75 ↓ (3)	3.42 ↑ (2.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gualaceo
39.7%

Draw
33.4%

Independiente Juniors
26.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.9%

30.8%

34.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.6%

30.2%

33.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gualaceo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

Independiente Juniors has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Independiente Juniors might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gualaceo than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente Juniors than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Independiente Juniors could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Gualaceo - Independiente Juniors Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
16', 1 - 0, ⚽,
23', 1 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
48', 2 - 1, ⚽,
62', 2 - 2, ⚽,
76', 2 - 3, ⚽,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 10 in the zone Serie B (Relegation Group: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Promotion Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gualaceo won 1.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Independiente Jr may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Gualaceo won 6 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 17:17. (average 1.1:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Gualaceo won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 7:2. (average 1:0.3).

Standings

Promotion Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Ind. Juniors	28	12	11	5	35:23	12	47

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gualaceo SC
Ecuadorian Copa
29.07.26	Gualaceo - Deportivo Macará	2:1 penalties ✺
Ecuadorian Serie B
24.07.26	El Nacional - Gualaceo	0:0 ✺
18.07.26	Gualaceo - 22 de Julio	0:1 ✺
11.07.26	9 de Octubre - Gualaceo	0:0 ✺
01.07.26	Vinotinto - Gualaceo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.3 WTLTW
- Independiente Juniors
Ecuadorian Serie B
23.07.26	Independiente Juniors - Vinotinto	2:0 ✺
17.07.26	LDU Portoviejo - Independiente Juniors	0:1 ✺
11.07.26	Independiente Juniors - Atlético Rojiblanco	0:0 ✺
Ecuadorian Copa
08.07.26	Independiente Juniors - LDU Quito	1:2 penalties ✺
Ecuadorian Serie B
02.07.26	Deportivo Santo Domingo - Independiente Juniors	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WWTLL

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Serie B
07.05.26	Independiente Juniors - Gualaceo	1:1
16.10.25	Independiente Juniors - Gualaceo	2:1
16.09.25	Gualaceo - Independiente Juniors	1:0
24.07.25	Gualaceo - Independiente Juniors	0:1
13.05.25	Independiente Juniors - Gualaceo	1:1
16.10.24	Gualaceo - Independiente Juniors	2:1
30.08.24	Independiente Juniors - Gualaceo	4:1

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