Match Info

Serie B - Round 16

Date: 11 July 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Modelo Alberto Spencer (Guayaquil)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	Zapping, Zapping Sports, Zapping Sports+
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	9 de Octubre		Gualaceo

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.50	3.55	6.10
	1.55	3.74	6.59
	1.61	3.52	6.14	Watch
	1.50	3.70	6.50
	1.48	3.66	6.53	Watch
	1.51	3.60	6.20
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.53 ↓ (1.69)	3.63 ↑ (3.18)	6.34 ↑ (4.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

9 de Octubre
60.2%

Draw
25.3%

Gualaceo
14.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.3%

28.3%

18.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.5%

28.9%

18%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

9 de Octubre has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in 9 de Octubre's performance.

Gualaceo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for 9 de Octubre than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with 9 de Octubre that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gualaceo than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	0%	14.3%

9 de Octubre - Gualaceo Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. 9 de Octubre will win (votes: 4 - 80%). Gualaceo will win (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Promotion Group: ) and 10 in the zone Serie B (Relegation Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, 9 de Octubre won 3.

Recent performances by 9 de Octubre have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Gualaceo is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Gualaceo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, 9 de Octubre is considered a favorite.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, 9 de Octubre won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 17:12. (average 1.4:1).

Including home matches between the teams, 9 de Octubre won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:3. (average 1.8:0.6).

Standings

Promotion Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Nueve de Octubre	28	11	12	5	31:20	11	45

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- 9 de Octubre FC
Ecuadorian Serie B
04.07.26	LDU Portoviejo - 9 de Octubre	1:1 ✺
09.06.26	9 de Octubre - Vinotinto	2:1 ✺
03.06.26	Atlético Rojiblanco - 9 de Octubre	0:0 ✺
30.05.26	9 de Octubre - Cuenca Juniors	3:3 ✺
25.05.26	Independiente Juniors - 9 de Octubre	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 TWTTT
- Gualaceo SC
Ecuadorian Serie B
01.07.26	Vinotinto - Gualaceo	1:2 ✺
10.06.26	Gualaceo - Cumbayá	1:0 ✺
06.06.26	LDU Portoviejo - Gualaceo	1:0 ✺
Ecuadorian Copa
03.06.26	Gualaceo - Mushuc Runa	1:0 ✺
Ecuadorian Serie B
30.05.26	Gualaceo - Deportivo Santo Domingo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.5 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Serie B
26.04.26	Gualaceo - 9 de Octubre	1:0
29.10.25	Gualaceo - 9 de Octubre	1:5
26.08.25	9 de Octubre - Gualaceo	3:0
26.06.25	9 de Octubre - Gualaceo	3:0
17.04.25	Gualaceo - 9 de Octubre	1:0
30.10.24	Gualaceo - 9 de Octubre	0:0
10.07.24	9 de Octubre - Gualaceo	0:0

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