Match Info

League Two - Round 16

Date: 11 July 2026, Saturday

Location: Guangdong Provincial People's Stadium (Guangzhou)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Guangdong Mingtu		Shenzhen

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.25	2.95	2.10
	2.92	2.78	2.45
	2.95	2.67	2.56
	3.28	3.12	2.16
	2.85	2.6	2.5
	2.99	2.71	2.51
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.04 ↓ (3.42)	2.81 ↓ (3.1)	2.38 ↑ (2.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Guangdong Mingtu
29.8%

Draw
32.2%

Shenzhen
38%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.2%

30%

42.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.5%

29.2%

44%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Guangdong Mingtu has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

Shenzhen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Guangdong Mingtu than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shenzhen than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Shenzhen could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Guangdong Mingtu - Shenzhen Predictions

Users Predictions: Shenzhen will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
14. Li C. (G) 22. Fang H. 41. Li T. 36. Tan Zhennan 52. Zhong W. 16. Cai M. (C) 5. Jiang Yixiang 17. Wang Tanyou 10. Wen Y. 11. Xin Hongjun 42. He J.	43. Yuan J. (G) 45. Yuan Z. 11. Lu C. 55. Huang Keqi 4. Li Mingjie 47. Huang Z. 8. Chen W. 6. Luan Cheng (C) 49. Jiang W. 5. Hai J. 57. Wang Ziyang
Substitutes
12. Chen Rijin 7. Gu Zhiwei 6. Huang Guangliang 9. Li Ming 2. Luo X. 39. Pang Jiajun (G) 33. Qu J. 8. Tian Li 50. Wu Z. 19. Ye Zimin 28. Zhang Zhihao 43. Zhu Xinyu	29. Deng Z. 1. Hao M. (G) 30. Hu H. 20. Li L. 10. Li P. 27. Liu Q. 9. Luo Kaisa 24. Pan N. 17. Shi Z. 28. Wang Zhiyuan 12. Yongsu Huang
Coaches
Sanabria A.	Wang Baoshan

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
27', 0 - 1, Jiang W. ⚽, Luan Cheng (A),
30', 0 - 2, Huang Z. ⚽, Li Mingjie (A),
33', 1 - 2, Wang Tanyou ⚽, Tan Zhennan (A),
35', Fang H. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Li T. ↓, Huang Guangliang ↑,
59', Jiang W. ↓, Wang Zhiyuan ↑,
59', Hai J. ↓, Luo Kaisa ↑,
59', Lu C. ↓, Yongsu Huang ↑,
60', He J. ↓, Zhu Xinyu ↑,
61', Jiang Yixiang 🟨,
69', Tan Zhennan ↓, Zhang Zhihao ↑,
69', Xin Hongjun ↓, Li Ming ↑,
69', Wen Y. ↓, Gu Zhiwei ↑,
70', Huang Z. ↓, Li P. ↑,
83', Wang Ziyang ↓, Li L. ↑,
85', 2 - 2, Cai M. (Penalty Awarded),
85', Li Mingjie 🟨,
86', Gu Zhiwei 🟨,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 9 in the zone League Two (Relegation Group: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ League Two (Promotion Group: )).

In recent matches, Guangdong Mingtu has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Shenzhen is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Shenzhen will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Guangdong Mingtu won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:4. (average 1:2).

Standings

Promotion Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Shenzhen	25	11	8	6	38:27	11	41

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Guangdong Mingtu
Chinese Yi League
04.07.26	Guangzhou Dandelion Alpha - Guangdong Mingtu	1:2 ✺
27.06.26	Guangdong Mingtu - Xiamen Feilu	1:2 ✺
23.06.26	Guangdong Mingtu - Guizhou Guiyang Athletic	0:0 ✺
19.06.26	Ganzhou Ruishi - Guangdong Mingtu	0:2 ✺
13.06.26	Guangdong Mingtu - Hangzhou Linping Wuyue	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.1 WLTWT
- Shenzhen FC
Chinese Yi League
05.07.26	Xiamen Feilu - Shenzhen	0:0 ✺
28.06.26	Shenzhen - Chengdu Rongcheng B	1:0 ✺
24.06.26	Shenzhen - Hangzhou Linping Wuyue	3:1 ✺
20.06.26	Wuhan Three Towns B - Shenzhen	1:1 ✺
14.06.26	Hubei Istar - Shenzhen	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 TWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Chinese Yi League
25.04.26	Shenzhen - Guangdong Mingtu	3:1
01.06.25	Shenzhen - Guangdong Mingtu	1:1

Guangdong Mingtu - Shenzhen: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide