Match Info

League One - Round 16

Date: 26 July 2026, Sunday

Location: Guangxi Sports Center (Nanning)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Guangxi Hengchen		Dingnan United

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.34	4.40	7.25
	1.31	4.55	7.9	Watch
	1.41	4.8	8.66
	1.32	4.94	9.14	Watch
	1.39	4.15	8.55
	1.33	5.14	8.12	Watch
	1.32	4.6	8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.35 ↓ (1.5)	4.65 ↑ (3.9)	8.23 ↑ (5.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Guangxi Hengchen
68.8%

Draw
19.9%

Dingnan United
11.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.5%

23.3%

16.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.2%

22.3%

15.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Guangxi Hengchen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Guangxi Hengchen's performance.

Dingnan United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Guangxi Hengchen than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Guangxi Hengchen that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dingnan United than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

Guangxi Hengchen - Dingnan United Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3 - over (2.02) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (1.97) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Liang Kun (G) 32. Li S. 5. Luan H. 2. Lu Jiaqiang 3. Yuan X. (C) 6. Chen G. 18. Wei Chaolun 44. Liang Yibin 7. Chen D. 10. Ardazishvili R. 36. Mbo N.	31. Xiao Yuanming (G) 3. Zhu Mingxin 27. Wang Sihan (C) 4. Daciel 2. Zhang Yujie 6. Zhu Jiaxuan 8. Zhang Zimin 34. Hao Yucheng 21. Hu Jiajin 7. Palacios M. 19. Han Yuchen
Substitutes
28. Ablimit Subi 19. Cen Liyi 1. Dai Jiatong (G) 21. Dai Ming 42. Ji Tianle 23. Khedrup Lobsang 20. Lu Junhui 16. Ning W. 25. Ren K. 12. Yao-hsing Yu 39. Zhang Jianzhi (G) 4. Zhang Z.	28. Cheng Yetong 18. Fan Bojian 22. Gao S. 37. Petrov M. 45. Yang B. 24. Yang Chen (G) 33. Yan Jiahao
Coaches
Liu Junwei	Mao Biao

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
16', 1 - 0, Mbo N. ⚽, Ardazishvili R. (A),
19', 1 - 1, Hao Yucheng ⚽,
24', 2 - 1, Mbo N. ⚽,
35', Li S. ↓, Ren K. ↑,
2nd Half (2 - 3)
46', Han Yuchen ↓, Petrov M. ↑,
46', Zhu Mingxin ↓, Gao S. ↑,
46', Hao Yucheng ↓, Cheng Yetong ↑,
51', Liang Kun 🟨,
53', 2 - 2, Zhang Zimin ⚽,
57', Lu Jiaqiang ↓, Ji Tianle ↑,
58', Ardazishvili R. ↓, Khedrup Lobsang ↑,
61', 2 - 3, Petrov M. ⚽, Palacios M. (A),
64', Xiao Yuanming 🟥,
68', Palacios M. ↓, Yang Chen ↑,
70', Liang Yibin ↓, Lu Junhui ↑,
70', Luan H. ↓, Zhang Z. ↑,
72', 3 - 3, Chen D. ⚽,
80', Petrov M. ↓, Fan Bojian ↑,
88', 4 - 3, Chen D. ⚽, Wei Chaolun (A),
88', Chen D. 🟨,
90+2', Chen G. 🟨,
90+5', 4 - 4, Zhu Jiaxuan ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 4 and 11).

Guangxi Hengchen is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Dingnan United has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Guangxi Hengchen may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Guangxi Hengchen is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Guangxi Hengchen won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Guangxi Hengchen	25	13	6	6	40:27	13	45
13	Dingnan Ganlian	25	4	12	9	35:46	-11	24

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Guangxi Hengchen
Chinese Jia League
18.07.26	Guangxi Hengchen - Shaanxi Union	3:0 ✺
05.07.26	Guangxi Hengchen - Dalian Kun City	3:1 ✺
27.06.26	Changchun Yatai - Guangxi Hengchen	1:2 ✺
Chinese FA Cup
20.06.26	Guangxi Hengchen - Shandong Taishan	0:5 ✺
Chinese Jia League
14.06.26	Shenzhen Juniors - Guangxi Hengchen	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 WWWLT
- Jiangxi Dingnan United
Chinese Jia League
18.07.26	Dingnan United - Ningbo Professional	0:1 ✺
12.07.26	Shenzhen Juniors - Dingnan United	3:3 ✺
04.07.26	Yanbian Longding - Dingnan United	3:0 ✺
28.06.26	Dingnan United - Wuxi Wugou	3:3 ✺
13.06.26	Dingnan United - Guangdong GZ-Power	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 LTLTL

Latest Head to Head

Chinese Jia League
14.03.26	Dingnan United - Guangxi Hengchen	2:1

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