Match Info

Serie C - Group B - Round 6

Date: 21 September 2026, Monday

Location: Stadio Citta dell Aria (Guidonia Montecelio)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 251, Sky Sport Calcio


	Guidonia Montecelio		Livorno

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.00	2.95	2.20
	2.70	2.80	2.45	Watch
	2.81	3.03	3.20
	2.31	3	3.12	Watch
	3.40	3.05	2.17
	3.17	2.92	2.22	Watch
	3.10	3.00	2.24
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.93 ↑ (2.21)	2.96 ↓ (3.17)	2.51 ↓ (3.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is -0.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Guidonia Montecelio
31.7%

Draw
31.3%

Livorno
36.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.6%

29%

29.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.6%

29.7%

28.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Guidonia Montecelio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Guidonia Montecelio's form might have worsened.

Livorno has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Livorno's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Guidonia Montecelio than the current prediction. (+10.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Guidonia Montecelio, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Livorno than the current prediction. (-8.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Livorno, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Guidonia Montecelio - Livorno Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Drago G. (G) 11. Viteritti O. 33. Borghini D. 2. Esempio S. (C) 26. Baroni R. 77. Zappella D. 23. Murgia A. 20. Giannotti P. 7. Sannipoli D. 14. Santoro S. 30. Ferrari F.	91. Martinez M. (G) 2. Gentile D. 4. Bachini M. 34. Veseli F. 54. Falasco N. 5. Bacciardi A. 17. Arrigoni T. (C) 21. Malotti M. 9. Gabbiani G. 77. Mawete J. C. 13. Di Carmine S.
Substitutes
4. Celeghin E. 18. D'Urso C. 73. Falleni A. 38. Frascatore P. 3. Malomo A. 5. Mastrantonio V. 22. Ramogida T. (G) 10. Spavone A. 96. Stellato G. (G) 17. Tascone S. 21. Tonetto M. 9. Vertainen E.	7. Aramu M. 44. Bonassi L. 90. Calabro L. 22. Ciobanu D. (G) 32. Haas N. 11. Malagrida L. 14. Mancini T. 23. Marinari J. 3. Menarini F. 8. Peralta D. 53. Pittino T. 19. Regazzetti S. 28. Rizza A. 1. Tani F. (G)
Coaches
Lopez G.	Lucarelli C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
34', Di Carmine S. ↓, Peralta D. ↑,
36', Baroni R. 🟨,
42', 0 - 1, Malotti M. ⚽, Gabbiani G. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Santoro S. ↓, Vertainen E. ↑,
46', Murgia A. ↓, Mastrantonio V. ↑,
52', 1 - 1, Sannipoli D. ⚽,
63', Viteritti O. ↓, Tonetto M. ↑,
66', Malotti M. ↓, Bonassi L. ↑,
66', Gabbiani G. ↓, Mancini T. ↑,
66', Bacciardi A. ↓, Haas N. ↑,
72', Arrigoni T. 🟨,
75', Sannipoli D. ↓, Celeghin E. ↑,
86', Vertainen E. ↓, Falleni A. ↑,
90+1', Mancini T. 🟨,

Preview

An intriguing matchup between a mid-ranked team and a top contender (ranked 9th in the Promotion ~ Serie C ~ Promotion ~ Play Offs (1/32~finals) and 5th in the Promotion ~ Serie C ~ Promotion ~ Play Offs (1/32~finals)).

In recent outings, Guidonia has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Livorno is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 3 head-to-head meetings, Guidonia has recorded 2 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 4:4 (averaging 1.3:1.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Guidonia against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 0:2 goals.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Livorno	8	4	2	2	10:9	1	14
7	Guidonia	8	3	3	2	10:7	3	12

Last Results with these Odds

Guidonia Montecelio - the odds 2.21 are the expected chance of winning is 41.61%, but this team recently wins 11% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Guidonia Montecelio 1937 FC
Italian Serie C Group B
16.09.26	Latina - Guidonia Montecelio	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	Guidonia Montecelio - Reggiana	1:1 ✺
05.09.26	Guidonia Montecelio - Pianese	1:0 ✺
Coppa Italia Serie C
02.09.26	Guidonia Montecelio - Latina	Canceled ✺
Italian Serie C Group B
30.08.26	Atalanta U23 - Guidonia Montecelio	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 TTW?L
- US Livorno 1915
Italian Serie C Group B
16.09.26	Livorno - Vado	3:2 ✺
12.09.26	Spezia - Livorno	2:0 ✺
06.09.26	Livorno - Atalanta U23	1:0 ✺
Coppa Italia Serie C
03.09.26	Novara - Livorno	0:1 penalties ✺
Italian Serie C Group B
29.08.26	Pineto - Livorno	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 WLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group B
17.01.26	Guidonia Montecelio - Livorno	0:2
07.09.25	Livorno - Guidonia Montecelio	0:1
Coppa Italia Serie D
18.12.24	Livorno - Guidonia Montecelio	2:3

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