Match Info

Serie C - Group B - Round 5

Date: 16 September 2026, Wednesday

Location: Stadio Armando Picchi (Livorno)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia


	Livorno		Vado

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.70	3.40	4.20
	1.7	3.4	4.5	Watch
	1.7	3.56	5.05
	1.7	3.47	4.77	Watch
	1.66	3.35	4.95
	1.65	3.28	5.04	Watch
	1.7	3.45	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.69 ↑ (1.68)	3.42 ↓ (3.44)	4.72 ↓ (4.97)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Livorno
54%

Draw
26.7%

Vado
19.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.8%

26.7%

18.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.8%

26.2%

18.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Livorno has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Vado has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Livorno than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vado than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	25%	0%

Livorno - Vado Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Livorno will win (votes: 3 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
91. Martinez M. (G) 19. Regazzetti S. 6. Djidji K. 53. Pittino T. 28. Rizza A. 17. Arrigoni T. (C) 3. Menarini F. 77. Mawete J. C. 7. Aramu M. 11. Malagrida L. 14. Mancini T.	16. Sala A. (G) 39. Malanca L. 18. Piana L. 5. Saltarelli M. 32. Ghezzi A. 20. De Rinaldis M. 28. Hamlili Z. 21. Di Munno A. 3. Carlini C. 31. Ferro M. 11. Vita D. (C)
Substitutes
5. Bacciardi A. 4. Bachini M. 44. Bonassi L. 90. Calabro L. 22. Ciobanu D. (G) 13. Di Carmine S. 54. Falasco N. 9. Gabbiani G. 2. Gentile D. 32. Haas N. 21. Malotti M. 23. Marinari J. 8. Peralta D. 1. Tani F. (G) 34. Veseli F.	81. Agostino N. 22. Bellocci A. (G) 80. Bruno K. 1. Calvani S. (G) 25. Candiano M. 95. Cernigoi I. 2. Dellepiane L. 14. Gulinelli F. 27. Hergheligiu D. 17. Lazzarini M. 99. Lionetti G. 9. Lischetti L. 97. Rosa F. 29. Saiani F. 10. Simonetta J.
Coaches
Lucarelli C.	Annoni P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
7', 1 - 0, Malagrida L. ⚽,
12', 1 - 1, Vita D. (Penalty Awarded),
21', 1 - 2, Ferro M. ⚽, Hamlili Z. (A),
32', Djidji K. ↓, Bachini M. ↑,
36', Malagrida L. 🟨,
41', Hamlili Z. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Menarini F. ↓, Bonassi L. ↑,
46', Malagrida L. ↓, Calabro L. ↑,
57', Malanca L. ↓, Gulinelli F. ↑,
58', 2 - 2, Aramu M. ⚽,
62', Mancini T. ↓, Di Carmine S. ↑,
66', Carlini C. ↓, Saiani F. ↑,
66', Vita D. ↓, Lischetti L. ↑,
72', Aramu M. ↓, Gabbiani G. ↑,
77', Ferro M. ↓, Simonetta J. ↑,
77', Hamlili Z. ↓, Candiano M. ↑,
81', 3 - 2, Bonassi L. ⚽,
89', Martinez M. 🟨,

Preview

Livorno is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Vado is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Livorno is considered a favorite.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Livorno	8	4	2	2	10:9	1	14
14	Vado	8	2	2	4	6:8	-2	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Livorno 1915
Italian Serie C Group B
12.09.26	Spezia - Livorno	2:0 ✺
06.09.26	Livorno - Atalanta U23	1:0 ✺
Coppa Italia Serie C
03.09.26	Novara - Livorno	0:1 penalties ✺
Italian Serie C Group B
29.08.26	Pineto - Livorno	0:0 ✺
24.08.26	Livorno - Sassari Torres	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 LWWTW
- FC Vado
Italian Serie C Group B
12.09.26	Vado - Campobasso	0:1 ✺
06.09.26	Reggiana - Vado	3:1 ✺
Coppa Italia Serie C
02.09.26	Spezia - Vado	3:0 ✺
Italian Serie C Group B
28.08.26	Pianese - Vado	0:0 ✺
21.08.26	Vado - Atalanta U23	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 LLLTW

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