Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 11

Date: 19 April 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Arturo Jiya Miranda (Santiago del Estero)

Referee: Macheroni M. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	TyC Sports Play


	Güemes		Arsenal Sarandí

	1	X	2
	1.62	3.3	7	Watch
	1.7	3.1	5.5
	1.6	3.3	6.6	Watch
	1.62	3.3	7.59
	1.65	3.15	7.1	Watch
	1.65	3.2	6
	1.62	3.22	6.48
	1.6	3.3	6.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.63 ↓ (1.77)	3.23 ↓ (3.35)	6.61 ↑ (4.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Güemes
57.1%

Draw
28.8%

Arsenal Sarandí
14.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.9%

28%

19.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.5%

27.2%

18.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Güemes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

Arsenal Sarandí has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Güemes than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arsenal Sarandí than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

Güemes - Arsenal Sarandí Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Leguiza M. (G) 4. Juarez W. 2. Machuca B. 6. Monserrat N. 3. Lopez F. 8. Bettini M. 5. Griffa E. 10. Veliz D. 11. Gerez M. 7. Alvarez M. 9. Albertengo M.	1. Pourtau J. (G) 4. Vera M. 2. Roselli N. 6. Sosa A. 3. Serrano V. 8. Rius C. 5. Vila J. 10. Fernandez E. 11. Villagra C. 7. Trombini M. 9. Klusener G.
Substitutes
18. Brylko H. 19. Federico T. 16. Fissore M. 14. Gauna J. 13. Gonzalez F. 20. Palacios P. 15. Papa G. 17. Perez P. 12. Pezzini N. (G)	19. Bordagaray F. 13. Caceres R. 14. Colletta T. 17. Flores M. 16. Frascone N. 12. Mekbel F. (G) 15. Purita E. 20. Sabatini I. 18. Stringa A.
Coaches
Martel P.	Franco D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
34', 1 - 0, Alvarez M. ⚽,
38', Vila J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Lopez F. ↓, Gauna J. ↑,
46', Villagra C. ↓, Caceres R. ↑,
64', Albertengo M. ↓, Perez P. ↑,
64', Rius C. ↓, Bordagaray F. ↑,
72', Alvarez M. ↓, Palacios P. ↑,
72', Gerez M. ↓, Papa G. ↑,
79', Griffa E. ↓, Fissore M. ↑,
80', Fernandez E. ↓, Purita E. ↑,
81', Vera M. ↓, Sabatini I. ↑,
84', Machuca B. 🟨,
84', Sabatini I. 🟨,
89', Leguiza M. 🟨,
90+2', Sosa A. 🟨,
90+3', 🟨,

Preview

In a match only outsiders will meet (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation and 17 in the zone Relegation).

Both teams are in bad shape now.

In this match Güemes is a favorite.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Güemes won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1:2 (average 0.5:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Güemes won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0:1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Güemes
Argentinian Primera Nacional
12.04.25	All Boys - Güemes	3:1 ✺
05.04.25	Güemes - Alvarado	1:1 ✺
30.03.25	Deportivo Madryn - Güemes	1:0 ✺
23.03.25	Güemes - Deportivo Maipú	1:1 ✺
16.03.25	Gimnasia y Tiro - Güemes	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LTLTL
- Arsenal Sarandí
Argentinian Primera Nacional
14.04.25	Arsenal Sarandí - Patronato Parana	0:1 ✺
07.04.25	Ferro Carril Oeste - Arsenal Sarandí	2:0 ✺
30.03.25	Arsenal Sarandí - Club Almagro	2:2 ✺
22.03.25	San Miguel - Arsenal Sarandí	1:1 ✺
15.03.25	Arsenal Sarandí - Quilmes	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 LLTTL

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
23.06.24	Güemes - Arsenal Sarandí	0:1
04.02.24	Arsenal Sarandí - Güemes	1:1

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