The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
San Martín de Tucumán 60%
Draw 26.3%
Güemes 13.7%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
60.9%
26.9%
12.2%
Our Initial ML Estimation
41.5%
18.3%
17.9%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
San Martín de Tucumán has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)
Güemes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for San Martín de Tucumán than the current prediction. (-18.5%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with San Martín de Tucumán that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Güemes than the current prediction. (+4.2%)
San Martín de Tucumán - Güemes Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Sand D. (G) 2. Galvan A. 6. Parnisari E. 4. Salazar V. 3. Gallardo N. 8. Garcia M. 5. Brinone S. 10. Carabajal G. 9. Arfaras L. 11. Cabrera B. 7. Veliez A.
1. Finochietto L. (G) 4. Bordon A. 2. Juarez W. 6. Melillan F. 3. Benitez M. 8. Pinto A. 5. Godoy F. 11. Guinazu L. 7. Sala S. G. 9. Sanchez J. 10. Pugliese G.
Substitutes
14. Castro N. 16. Garcia M. 15. Graneros A. 12. Jaime J. (G) 17. Monroy G. 19. Paz A. 13. Rodriguez G. 18. Rodriguez L. 20. Veron M.
18. Farrera S. 17. Gerez M. 13. Gonzalez A. (G) 16. Juarez J. 20. Leineker C. 14. Martinez M. 12. Palleres T. (G) 15. Rizzi F. 19. Veliz D.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 1)
16', 0 - 1, Sala S. G. ⚽, Melillan F. (A),
20', Galvan A. 🟨,
26', Garcia M. 🟨,
40', Arfaras L. ↓, Veron M. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Brinone S. ↓, Monroy G. ↑,
62', Melillan F. 🟨,
63', Pugliese G. ↓, Martinez M. ↑,
66', Carabajal G. ↓, Paz A. ↑,
66', Gallardo N. ↓, Garcia M. ↑,
69', Pinto A. ↓, Gerez M. ↑,
69', Sanchez J. ↓, Leineker C. ↑,
75', Bordon A. 🟨,
78', Sala S. G. ↓, Rizzi F. ↑,
80', Garcia M. ↓, Castro N. ↑,
90', 1 - 1, Cabrera B. ⚽, Veron M. (A),
90+2', Garcia M. 🟨,
Preview
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, San Martin T won 1.
In recent matches, San Martin T has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).
Güemes is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
In this match, San Martin T is seen as the favorite.
In the last 8 head-to-head matches, San Martin T won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 12:6. (average 1.5:0.8).
Including home matches between the teams, San Martin T won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:4. (average 2:1).