Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 2 - Round 5

Date: 28 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio José Rico Pérez (Alicante)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Hércules		Alcorcón

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.2	3.4
	2.02	3.05	3.7
	2.04	3.1	3.96
	5.62	1.26	9.46	Watch
	2.04	3.35	3.56
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.73 ↑ (2.36)	2.79 ↓ (3.15)	4.82 ↑ (2.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hércules
39.3%

Draw
38.4%

Alcorcón
22.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.8%

29.1%

32.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.7%

29%

32.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hércules has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Alcorcón has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Alcorcón might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hércules than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alcorcón than the current prediction. (+9.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Alcorcón could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Hércules - Alcorcón Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Trujillo Hernandez A. C. (G) 2. Vazquez S. 20. Sotillos A. 4. Rentero J. 24. Jimenez J. 8. Mangada C. 14. Ben Hamed N. 18. Rojas C. 7. Soldevila O. 11. Ropero U. 9. Slavy	1. Ayesa G. (C) 2. Domingo Ciuraneta P. 19. Pola J. 4. Rojas J. 3. Nieto S. 5. Rai 18. Aguado T. 22. Blanco R. 14. Vacas L. 8. Martinez B. 11. Kopotun V.
Substitutes
3. Alvarez A. 22. Aranda A. 6. Colomina R. 17. De Leon J. 23. de Palmas R. 28. Galvan J. 16. Gomes V. 25. Mompean M. (G) 19. Sol F.	7. Aparicio E. 10. Ballesteros Y. 9. Carmona M. 17. Lanchi 13. Marti O. (G) 23. Navarro D. 6. Perez I. 24. Perez L. 15. Rodriguez S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
25', Mangada C. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Vazquez S. ↓, Alvarez A. ↑,
57', 🟨,
58', Mangada C. ↓, Colomina R. ↑,
65', Jimenez J. 🟨,
65', Vacas L. ↓, Rodriguez S. ↑,
65', Martinez B. ↓, Navarro D. ↑,
71', 🟨,
73', Kopotun V. ↓, Carmona M. ↑,
78', 🟨,
82', 🟨,
89', Blanco R. ↓, Lanchi ↑,
90+1', 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hércules won 3.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Alcorcón may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Hércules won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 10:9. (average 1.1:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Hércules won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 7:3. (average 1.8:0.8).

Last Results with these Odds

Hércules - the odds 2.36 are the expected chance of winning is 38.83%, but this team recently wins 88% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hércules CF
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
21.09.25	Cartagena - Hércules	2:1 ✺
12.09.25	Hércules - Algeciras	0:1 ✺
06.09.25	Ibiza - Hércules	2:1 ✺
30.08.25	Hércules - Tarazona	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
23.08.25	UCAM Murcia - Hércules	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 LLLWW
- AD Alcorcón
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
20.09.25	Alcorcón - Juventud de Torremolinos	1:1 ✺
13.09.25	Antequera - Alcorcón	1:2 ✺
Club Friendly
10.09.25	Alcorcón - Leonesa	0:1 ✺
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
06.09.25	Alcorcón - Teruel	2:1 ✺
01.09.25	Villarreal B - Alcorcón	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 TWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
27.04.25	Hércules - Alcorcón	2:0
31.08.24	Alcorcón - Hércules	4:1
Spanish LaLiga2
17.05.14	Hércules - Alcorcón	1:2
14.12.13	Alcorcón - Hércules	0:2
02.02.13	Hércules - Alcorcón	3:0
02.09.12	Alcorcón - Hércules	1:0
10.06.12	Alcorcón - Hércules	0:0

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