Match Info

1st Division - Round 20

Date: 6 March 2026, Friday

Location: Capelli Sport Stadion (Koge)

Referee: Nielsen J. (Den)

Where to Watch on TV:


Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Sweden	Viaplay


	HB Køge		Esbjerg

	1	X	2
	3.2	3.6	2.01
	3.1	3.5	2.05
	3	3.55	2.19	Watch
	3.27	3.69	2.14
	3.12	3.76	2.1	Watch
	3	3.3	2.05
	3.15	3.58	2.1	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.12 ↑ (3.08)	3.57 ↑ (3.5)	2.09 ↓ (2.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

HB Køge
29.7%

Draw
26%

Esbjerg
44.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.1%

26.5%

43.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.4%

25.9%

44.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

HB Køge has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Esbjerg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for HB Køge than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Esbjerg than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	25%	50%

HB Køge - Esbjerg Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Køge will win (votes: 2 - 25%). Esbjerg will win (votes: 4 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Esbjerg: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bayrak B. (G) 18. Salah M. 16. Hald S. 23. Westergren M. 2. Bust L. 6. Brodersen R. 28. Larsen G. 27. Romer M. (C) 10. Jensen Tue C. 20. Gothler A. 9. Thomsen T.	21. McCrorie R. (G) 4. Tjornelund P. 3. Skipper A. 25. Renecke W. 19. Strand S. 11. Bjur P. 12. Lausen A. 8. Maden M. 18. Hansen M. 80. Brajanac M. 7. From L. (C)
Substitutes
17. Alkhoudari B. 35. Choukri A. 22. Jakobsen M. 21. Jakobsen N. 7. Jensen M. 11. Mudi 8. Sorensen M. 14. Sorensen V. 12. Talyspayev D. (G)	27. Baldursson B. 22. Hvidt B. 14. Kolawole J. 16. Kristensen K. (G) 30. Kruse M. 40. Larsen E. 17. Lucena J. 15. Sonderskov A. 39. Strandby N.
Coaches
Pedersen N.	Manoharan S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
27', Strand S. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
59', Bjur P. 🟨,
63', From L. ↓, Kolawole J. ↑,
67', Bust L. ↓, Sorensen V. ↑,
74', Strand S. ↓, Strandby N. ↑,
75', Brajanac M. 🟨,
76', Larsen G. ↓, Mudi ↑,
76', Brodersen R. ↓, Jakobsen N. ↑,
79', 0 - 1, Strandby N. ⚽,
83', Jensen Tue C. ↓, Jensen M. ↑,
84', Gothler A. ↓, Alkhoudari B. ↑,
85', Tjornelund P. ↓, Sonderskov A. ↑,
85', Lausen A. ↓, Hvidt B. ↑,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 11 in the zone 1st Division (Relegation Group: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ 1st Division (Promotion Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Køge won 1.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Esbjerg will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Køge won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 13:19. (average 0.9:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Køge won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 9:7. (average 1.5:1.2).

Outrights of Danish 1 Division for now

Koge: 1.02% Esbjerg: 1.02%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Koge	9	1	4	4	11:17	-6	7
12	Esbjerg	9	1	2	6	10:19	-9	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HB Køge
Danish 1 Division
27.02.26	Hobro - HB Køge	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
06.02.26	HB Køge - Roskilde	Canceled ✺
31.01.26	HB Køge - Lyngby BK	2:4 ✺
24.01.26	HB Køge - AB Copenhagen	3:3 ✺
16.01.26	Næstved BK - HB Køge	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 T?LTT
- Esbjerg fB
Danish 1 Division
28.02.26	Esbjerg - Horsens	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
10.02.26	Esbjerg - Zimbru Chişinău	1:1 ✺
31.01.26	Middelfart - Esbjerg	2:1 ✺
23.01.26	Silkeborg IF - Esbjerg	1:3 ✺
17.01.26	Esbjerg - Kolding IF	4:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.9 WTLWT

Latest Head to Head

Danish 1 Division
01.09.25	Esbjerg - HB Køge	3:2
28.02.25	HB Køge - Esbjerg	0:2
24.08.24	Esbjerg - HB Køge	4:1
07.05.22	HB Køge - Esbjerg	2:1
23.04.22	Esbjerg - HB Køge	0:0
19.11.21	HB Køge - Esbjerg	3:0
04.10.21	Esbjerg - HB Køge	2:0

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