Match Info

Kansallinen Liiga Women - Championship Group

Date: 29 August 2026, Saturday

Location: JYA Housing Areena (Helsinki)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Ruutu+


	HPS		Ilves

	1	X	2
	1.49	4.40	4.75
	1.49	4.25	4.7
	1.52	4.18	4.31
	1.54	4.43	4.58	Watch
	1.49	4.05	4.2
	1.51	4.3	4.86
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.51 ↑ (1.42)	4.27 ↓ (4.35)	4.57 ↓ (5.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

HPS
59.4%

Draw
21%

Ilves
19.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.7%

20.5%

16.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65%

21.3%

16.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

HPS has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

Ilves has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for HPS than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for HPS, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ilves than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

HPS - Ilves Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Helminen L. (G) 8. Kinnunen A. 29. Lamberg A. 15. Oksanen V. 11. Paakkari E. 14. Perttula T. 21. Puolakka L. 16. Simonen A. (C) 17. Sinivuori F. 19. Stark T. 4. Welling E.	31. Maki-Kamppi V. (G) 21. Ahonen H. 7. Heinonen I. 3. Italinna E. 10. Jantti C. 56. Lilja T. 13. Luotonen A. 22. Olmala H. 4. Pirila R. 18. Pulkkinen E. 14. Rasinen A. (C)
Substitutes
20. Jaaskelainen O. 7. Kahre O. 12. Kamppi P. 2. Kataja M. 24. Nurminen M. 77. Punsar M. 5. Reis O. 1. Roine V. (G)	19. Kallio I. 1. Korpi J. (G) 11. Lahteenmaki L. 26. Purhonen P. 17. Tarkkanen A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
53', 1 - 0, Simonen A. ⚽,
62', Puolakka L. ↓, Jaaskelainen O. ↑,
62', Lamberg A. ↓, Reis O. ↑,
62', Stark T. ↓, Punsar M. ↑,
66', Simonen A. 🟨,
68', Luotonen A. ↓, Tarkkanen A. ↑,
77', Sinivuori F. ↓, Kataja M. ↑,
77', Welling E. ↓, Kamppi P. ↑,
77', Ahonen H. ↓, Lahteenmaki L. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, HPS won 3.

Recent form of HPS has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Ilves has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

HPS may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, HPS is the team to beat.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, HPS won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 7 matches, and goals 13:21. (average 1.1:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, HPS won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:11. (average 1.7:1.8).

Standings

Championship Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	HPS W	22	12	5	5	34:25	9	41
5	Ilves W	22	8	2	12	39:45	-6	26

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Helsingin Palloseura Women
Finnish Kansallinen Liiga Women
21.08.26	HPS - HJK	3:3 ✺
16.08.26	Åland United - HPS	2:1 ✺
08.08.26	HPS - KuPS	3:2 ✺
25.07.26	HPS - Ilves	1:2 ✺
19.07.26	HJK - HPS	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 TLWLL
- FC Ilves Women
Finnish Kansallinen Liiga Women
22.08.26	KuPS - Ilves	2:1 ✺
15.08.26	Ilves - Gnistan	1:2 ✺
25.07.26	HPS - Ilves	1:2 ✺
18.07.26	Ilves - Gnistan	2:2 ✺
12.07.26	KuPS - Ilves	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 29.5 LLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Finnish Kansallinen Liiga Women
25.07.26	HPS - Ilves	1:2
22.05.26	Ilves - HPS	1:0
31.08.24	HPS - Ilves	1:0
09.06.24	Ilves - HPS	0:2
26.08.23	Ilves - HPS	0:1
10.06.23	HPS - Ilves	1:1
27.08.22	Ilves - HPS	4:0

HPS - Ilves: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide