Match Info

Kansallinen Liiga Women - Championship Group

Date: 4 October 2026, Sunday

Location: Bolt Arena (Helsinki)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Ruutu+


	HJK		HPS

	1	X	2
	1.58	4.00	4.20
	1.48	4.10	4.90
	1.56	4.10	4.44
	1.53	4.28	4.82	Watch
	1.54	4.00	4.35
	1.68	4.57	4.28
	1.42	4.35	5.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.54 ↑ (1.41)	4.2 ↓ (4.3)	4.63 ↓ (5.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

HJK
58.8%

Draw
21.6%

HPS
19.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.1%

20.7%

16.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.4%

19.7%

15.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

HJK has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

HPS has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for HJK than the current prediction. (+7.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for HJK, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for HPS than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

HJK - HPS Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Forsstrom S. (G) 5. Gronlund J. 11. Heroum N. (C) 17. Holmstrom I. 71. Kamogawa M. 27. Kiviranta M. 3. Lahikainen A. 4. Sarelius U. 16. Sarkki J. 8. Suomela R. 18. Ylatalo I.	1. Roine V. (G) 20. Jaaskelainen O. 12. Kamppi P. 8. Kinnunen A. 15. Oksanen V. 11. Paakkari E. 14. Perttula T. 9. Rinkinen H. 16. Simonen A. (C) 17. Sinivuori F. 19. Stark T.
Substitutes
15. Forsten A. 34. Hillberg L. 2. Karvonen N. 12. Laihanen A. (G) 13. Lassas M. 7. Rantanen A. 44. Tivnan J.	7. Kahre O. 2. Kataja M. 13. Kohtamaki A. 23. Korpela T. (G) 77. Punsar M. 26. Talka M. 4. Welling E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
12', 0 - 1, Stark T. ⚽,
14', 0 - 2, Rinkinen H. ⚽,
35', 0 - 3, Jaaskelainen O. ⚽,
38', Kinnunen A. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Jaaskelainen O. ↓, Punsar M. ↑,
46', Lahikainen A. ↓, Lassas M. ↑,
46', Sarkki J. ↓, Forsten A. ↑,
46', Kamogawa M. ↓, Hillberg L. ↑,
53', 1 - 3, Heroum N. ⚽,
58', Gronlund J. 🟨,
71', Paakkari E. 🟨,
71', Simonen A. ↓, Talka M. ↑,
75', Sinivuori F. ↓, Kataja M. ↑,
79', 2 - 3, Holmstrom I. ⚽, Lassas M. (A),
79', Holmstrom I. ↓, Rantanen A. ↑,
85', Ylatalo I. 🟨,
87', Heroum N. ↓, Karvonen N. ↑,
88', Stark T. ↓, Kahre O. ↑,
90+5', Kiviranta M. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, HJK won 3.

HJK has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

HPS shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

HPS could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

HJK carries the favorite tag into this contest.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, HJK has recorded 15 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 52:18 (averaging 2.6:0.9 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for HJK against this opponent, the record stands at 7 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 25:3 goals (averaging 3.6:0.4 per game).

Standings

Championship Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	HJK W	22	18	1	3	62:21	41	55
4	HPS W	22	12	5	5	34:25	9	41

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HJK Helsinki Women
UEFA Europa Cup Women
30.09.26	Brann - HJK	4:0 ✺
Finnish Kansallinen Liiga Women
26.09.26	KuPS - HJK	0:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Cup Women
23.09.26	HJK - Brann	0:2 ✺
Finnish Kansallinen Liiga Women
19.09.26	HJK - Gnistan	6:1 ✺
12.09.26	Ilves - HJK	2:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 LWLWW
- Helsingin Palloseura Women
Finnish Kansallinen Liiga Women
26.09.26	HPS - Åland United	1:0 ✺
19.09.26	KuPS - HPS	0:0 ✺
12.09.26	Gnistan - HPS	1:3 ✺
Finnish Cup Women
06.09.26	HPS - HJK	1:3 AET ✺
Finnish Kansallinen Liiga Women
29.08.26	HPS - Ilves	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 WTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Finnish Cup Women
06.09.26	HPS - HJK	1:3 AET
Finnish Kansallinen Liiga Women
21.08.26	HPS - HJK	3:3
19.07.26	HJK - HPS	4:0
17.05.26	HPS - HJK	1:2
24.09.25	HPS - HJK	1:1
22.08.25	HJK - HPS	5:2
18.07.25	HJK - HPS	4:0

HJK - HPS: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide