Match Info

Kansallinen Liiga Women - Championship Group

Date: 15 August 2026, Saturday

Location: Tammelan Stadion (Tampere)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Ruutu+


	Ilves		Gnistan

	1	X	2
	1.63	4.00	3.80
	1.63	4.00	3.80
	1.65	4.30	3.68
	1.66	4.49	3.72	Watch
	1.62	4.25	3.60
	1.70	4.33	3.81
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.65 ↓ (1.9)	4.23 ↑ (3.75)	3.74 ↑ (3.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.75

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ilves
54.6%

Draw
21.3%

Gnistan
24.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47%

23.8%

29.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49%

22.8%

28.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ilves has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ilves's performance.

Gnistan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Gnistan might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ilves than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ilves that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gnistan than the current prediction. (+4%)

Ilves - Gnistan Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Maki-Kamppi V. (G) 2. Hakola L. 7. Heinonen I. 3. Italinna E. 10. Jantti C. 11. Lahteenmaki L. 56. Lilja T. 22. Olmala H. 18. Pulkkinen E. 14. Rasinen A. (C) 17. Tarkkanen A.	1. Virtanen Espejo I. (G) 77. Byrne K. 20. Gurung D. 5. Koota V. 12. Kraemer A. 4. Laine I. 19. Laurinkoski H. 16. Lindroth A. 18. Martikainen O. (C) 27. Raisanen L. 14. Tiainen D.
Substitutes
21. Ahonen H. 41. Jamsa M. 19. Kallio I. 1. Korpi J. (G) 4. Pirila R. 26. Purhonen P.	23. Ferm S. (G) 26. Karkkainen S. 8. Kemppainen S. 10. Leppioja J. 28. Pohjanoksa A. 7. Rita J. 31. Salmela A. 9. Tarkiainen P. 24. Tuomainen H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
34', Laurinkoski H. 🟨,
44', 0 - 1, Kraemer A. ⚽, Tiainen D. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
47', Laurinkoski H. ↓, Kemppainen S. ↑,
48', 1 - 1, Hakola L. ⚽, Heinonen I. (A),
61', Tarkkanen A. ↓, Ahonen H. ↑,
61', Lahteenmaki L. ↓, Pirila R. ↑,
70', Kraemer A. ↓, Salmela A. ↑,
70', Gurung D. ↓, Leppioja J. ↑,
73', Lilja T. ↓, Kallio I. ↑,
83', Rasinen A. ↓, Jamsa M. ↑,
84', Pulkkinen E. ↓, Purhonen P. ↑,
90+1', 1 - 2, Byrne K. ⚽,
90+3', Lindroth A. ↓, Pohjanoksa A. ↑,

Preview

Recent performances by Ilves have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Gnistan has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Gnistan may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Ilves is seen as the favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Ilves won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:4. (average 2.5:2).

Including home match between the teams, Ilves won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2.

Standings

Championship Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Ilves W	22	8	2	12	39:45	-6	26
6	Gnistan W	22	5	1	16	29:56	-27	16

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Ilves Women
Finnish Kansallinen Liiga Women
25.07.26	HPS - Ilves	1:2 ✺
18.07.26	Ilves - Gnistan	2:2 ✺
12.07.26	KuPS - Ilves	2:4 ✺
04.07.26	Ilves - Åland United	0:2 ✺
27.06.26	Ilves - HJK	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 29.5 WTWLL
- IF Gnistan Women
Finnish Kansallinen Liiga Women
12.08.26	Gnistan - HJK	1:3 ✺
25.07.26	Gnistan - KuPS	0:1 ✺
18.07.26	Ilves - Gnistan	2:2 ✺
12.07.26	Gnistan - HJK	0:1 ✺
05.07.26	VIFK - Gnistan	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Finnish Kansallinen Liiga Women
18.07.26	Ilves - Gnistan	2:2
17.05.26	Gnistan - Ilves	2:3

Ilves - Gnistan: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide