Match Info

Veikkausliiga - Round 20

Date: 17 August 2026, Monday

Location: Markku.fi Areena (Helsinki)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Ruutu+
Usa	SportsEngine Play
World	OneFootball TV


	Gnistan		Ilves

	1	X	2
	2.70	3.30	2.45	Watch
	2.75	3.50	2.35
	2.55	3.60	2.50	Watch
	2.85	3.66	2.47
	2.65	3.62	2.5	Watch
	2.75	3.60	2.40
	2.90	3.34	2.35	Watch
	2.65	3.35	2.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.73 ↑ (2.39)	3.5 ↓ (3.59)	2.42 ↓ (2.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gnistan
34.4%

Draw
26.8%

Ilves
38.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.3%

26.1%

34.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.7%

26.5%

35.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gnistan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

Ilves has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gnistan than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ilves than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	12.5%	50%

Gnistan - Ilves Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Gnistan will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Ilves will win (votes: 4 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ilves: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3 - under (1.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (1.56) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
95. Juricka M. (G) 24. Gnanou R. 67. Obileye A. (C) 3. Ruxi 26. Eremenko R. 31. Jouhi A. 19. Milovanov B. 15. Europaeus G. 12. Arko-Mensah E. 23. Ylatupa S. 17. Akinyemi A.	12. Krkalic F. (G) 16. Miettunen T. 5. Vaisanen S. (C) 3. Rale M. 4. Pettersson O. 14. Popovitch A. 33. Sacko Y. 13. Wallius K. 30. Kanga J. 28. Kilo J. 9. Hytonen T.
Substitutes
7. Atarah A. 14. Eremenko S. 27. Hannula O. 33. Heikari S. 10. Latonen J. 13. Lyberopoulos O. (G) 40. Ojala J. 11. Perez D.	15. Ala-Myllymaki L. 19. Bamba G. 17. Baranov S. 24. Kumpu V. 6. Raap Y. 10. Riski Ro. 8. Stjopin M. 45. Tamminen E. 1. Virtanen O. (G)
Coaches
Leppalahti J.	Speranza C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
4', 1 - 0, Vaisanen S. (Own goal),
14', 1 - 1, Hytonen T. ⚽, Pettersson O. (A),
24', Milovanov B. 🟨,
41', 1 - 2, Popovitch A. ⚽, Wallius K. (A),
43', Vaisanen S. 🟨,
45', 2 - 2, Akinyemi A. ⚽, Europaeus G. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Ylatupa S. ↓, Atarah A. ↑,
56', Vaisanen S. 🟨,
62', Sacko Y. ↓, Raap Y. ↑,
62', Kilo J. ↓, Baranov S. ↑,
63', Akinyemi A. ↓, Perez D. ↑,
78', Popovitch A. ↓, Riski Ro. ↑,
78', Pettersson O. ↓, Bamba G. ↑,
81', 3 - 2, Milovanov B. ⚽,
86', Eremenko R. ↓, Latonen J. ↑,
86', Ruxi ↓, Eremenko S. ↑,
89', Miettunen T. ↓, Stjopin M. ↑,
90+2', Perez D. 🟨,
90+3', Kanga J. 🟨,
90+4', Atarah A. ↓, Ojala J. ↑,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Veikkausliiga (Championship Group: ) and 9 in the zone Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gnistan won 0.

Gnistan is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Ilves has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Gnistan may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Gnistan: Arko-Mensah E. (Inactive) Bashkirov E. (Knee Injury) Launiala K. (Inactive) Marcelo Costa (Inactive)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Gnistan won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 15:22. (average 1.5:2.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Gnistan won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:6. (average 1.3:1.5).

Outrights of Finnish Veikkausliiga for now

Gnistan: 2.17%

Standings

Championship Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Gnistan	26	11	9	6	40:32	8	42

Last Results with these Odds

Ilves - the odds 2.71 are the expected chance of winning is 34.62%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- IF Gnistan
Finnish Veikkausliiga
07.08.26	SJK - Gnistan	2:2 ✺
01.08.26	Gnistan - KuPS Kuopio	0:1 ✺
26.07.26	Inter Turku - Gnistan	1:2 ✺
18.07.26	Oulu - Gnistan	0:2 ✺
11.07.26	Gnistan - IFK Mariehamn	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.7 TLWWW
- FC Ilves
UEFA Europa Conference League
13.08.26	Ilves - Rijeka	1:1 ✺
Finnish Veikkausliiga
09.08.26	Ilves - IFK Mariehamn	2:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
06.08.26	Rijeka - Ilves	1:0 ✺
Finnish Veikkausliiga
02.08.26	Oulu - Ilves	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
30.07.26	Ilves - Stjarnan	3:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 TWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Finnish Veikkausliiga
23.05.26	Ilves - Gnistan	2:0
Club Friendly
24.01.26	Ilves - Gnistan	1:0
Finnish Veikkausliiga
25.10.25	Gnistan - Ilves	1:3
23.09.25	Ilves - Gnistan	3:2
04.08.25	Ilves - Gnistan	2:2
01.06.25	Gnistan - Ilves	0:2
Finnish Cup
28.05.25	Gnistan - Ilves	3:0

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