Match Info

EUROPE: Conference League - Qualification - Quarter-finals

Date: 25 July 2024, Thursday

Location: Gradski stadion Lovech (Loveč)

Referee: Sakhi D. (Kaz)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Diema Sport 2, Play Diema Xtra
Israel	Sport 1


	Hapoel Beer Sheva		Cherno More Varna

	1	X	2
	2.5	3	2.75
	2.45	2.95	2.8
	2.55	3	2.9
	2.58	3	2.87
	2.58	3.06	2.85	Watch
	2.15	3.2	3.1
	2.57	3.08	2.81	Watch
	2.47	3.05	2.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.48 ↑ (2.11)	3.04 ↓ (3.28)	2.88 ↓ (3.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hapoel Beer Sheva
37.3%

Draw
30.5%

Cherno More Varna
32.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.7%

28.2%

28.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.5%

28.1%

28.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hapoel Beer Sheva has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Hapoel Beer Sheva's form might have worsened.

Cherno More Varna has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hapoel Beer Sheva than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Hapoel Beer Sheva, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cherno More Varna than the current prediction. (-4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
55%	20%	25%

Hapoel Beer Sheva - Cherno More Varna Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Hapoel Beer Sheva will win (votes: 11 - 61.1%). Cherno More will win (votes: 3 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Hapoel Beer Sheva: 38.6% – 83.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Marciano O. (G) 2. Mizrahi G. 5. Blorian O. 18. Tibi E. (C) 22. Lopes H. 8. Gordana R. 19. Elias S. 24. Badash G. 27. Stoyanov Y. 77. Hatuel R. 17. Turgeman A.	33. Iliev P. (G) 6. Popov V. 3. Atanasov Z. 28. Drobarov V. 2. Panov T. 71. Panayotov V. 27. Dimov D. (C) 11. Dudu 10. Soula M. 39. Zlatev N. 9. Isa I.
Substitutes
21. Ahmed Z. 35. Bareiro M. 16. Ganah A. C. 36. Golan R. (G) 25. Gordin Anbary B. (G) 26. Peretz O. 10. Quinonez D. 14. Rigen L. 7. Sefer A. 9. Shushenachev A. 15. Yosefi T.	29. Beyhan B. 7. Breno 16. Calcan A. 8. Donchev A. 22. Kostadinov N. 15. Martin D. 17. Milushev M. 23. Pacheco E. 5. Pais N. 84. Slavkov H. (G) 4. Stefanov R. 91. Vasilev V.
Coaches
Kozuch R.	Iliev I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
33', Isa I. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Dudu ↓, Donchev A. ↑,
46', Zlatev N. ↓, Calcan A. ↑,
50', Calcan A. 🟨,
63', Stoyanov Y. ↓, Peretz O. ↑,
63', Hatuel R. ↓, Ganah A. C. ↑,
72', Badash G. ↓, Quinonez D. ↑,
72', Elias S. ↓, Yosefi T. ↑,
72', Dimov D. ↓, Pais N. ↑,
80', Turgeman A. ↓, Ahmed Z. ↑,
80', Isa I. ↓, Breno ↑,
90+2', Soula M. ↓, Beyhan B. ↑,
90+5', Atanasov Z. 🟨,

Preview

1st leg. Playing home matches at a different stadium - Gradski stadion Lovech.

Hapoel Beer Sheva is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Cherno More is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recently Hapoel Beer Sheva have a series of guest games.

Hapoel Beer Sheva will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hapoel Beer Sheva
Israeli Toto Cup
20.07.24	Maccabi Haifa - Hapoel Beer Sheva	3:0 ✺
Club Friendly
06.07.24	Stal Rzeszów - Hapoel Beer Sheva	3:1 ✺
03.07.24	Hapoel Beer Sheva - Górnik Łęczna	4:1 ✺
Israeli State Cup
30.05.24	Maccabi Petah Tikva - Hapoel Beer Sheva	1:0 ✺
Israeli Ligat haAl
25.05.24	Hapoel Bnei Sakhnin - Hapoel Beer Sheva	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LLWLL
- Cherno More Varna
Bulgarian Parva Liga
19.07.24	Cherno More Varna - CSKA 1948 Sofia	0:0 ✺
Club Friendly
03.07.24	Levski Sofia - Cherno More Varna	0:0 ✺
27.06.24	Cherno More Varna - Botev Vratsa	Canceled ✺
21.06.24	Farul Constanța - Cherno More Varna	0:1 ✺
Bulgarian Parva Liga
26.05.24	Cherno More Varna - Krumovgrad	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.9 TT?WW

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