Match Info

ENGLAND: SOUTHERN LEAGUE SOUTH DIVISION - ROUND 24

Date: 31 January 2023, Tuesday


	Hartley Wintney		Chesham United

	1	X	2
	4.33	4.1	1.57
	4.2	3.95	1.55
	4.4	4.1	1.57
	4.67	4.14	1.61
	4	4	1.67
	4.7	4.25	1.57
	4.5	4.2	1.57
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.4 ↓ (5.02)	4.11 ↓ (4.47)	1.59 ↑ (1.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 7.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hartley Wintney
20.6%

Draw
22.1%

Chesham United
57.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

17.8%

20%

62.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.4%

19.5%

63.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hartley Wintney has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Chesham United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hartley Wintney than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chesham United than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Chesham United could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	37.5%	62.5%

Hartley Wintney - Chesham United Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Chesham will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Chesham: 29% – 96%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 21 in the zone Relegation and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Southern League South Division (Play Offs)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Hartley Wintney won 1.

Hartley Wintney is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Chesham in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Recently Chesham have a series of guest games.

In this match Chesham is a favorite.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Hartley Wintney won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 8-13.

Including matches at home between the teams Hartley Wintney won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 2-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hartley Wintney
English Southern League South Division
28.01.23	North Leigh - Hartley Wintney	3:0 ✺
14.01.23	Merthyr Town - Hartley Wintney	4:1 ✺
07.01.23	Hartley Wintney - Dorchester Town	2:4 ✺
02.01.23	Bracknell Town - Hartley Wintney	5:0 ✺
26.12.22	Hartley Wintney - Gosport Borough	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 LLLLW
- Chesham United
English Southern League South Division
28.01.23	Beaconsfield Town - Chesham United	5:2 ✺
07.01.23	Chesham United - Bracknell Town	2:1 ✺
02.01.23	North Leigh - Chesham United	2:3 ✺
26.12.22	Chesham United - Hayes & Yeading United	0:3 ✺
06.12.22	Yate Town - Chesham United	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

English Southern League South Division
13.08.22	Chesham United - Hartley Wintney	1:0
26.02.22	Hartley Wintney - Chesham United	0:1
06.11.21	Chesham United - Hartley Wintney	4:2
29.09.20	Chesham United - Hartley Wintney	0:0
07.03.20	Chesham United - Hartley Wintney	1:2
22.10.19	Hartley Wintney - Chesham United	1:2
16.02.19	Chesham United - Hartley Wintney	2:2

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