Match Info

ENGLAND: SOUTHERN LEAGUE SOUTH DIVISION - ROUND 36

Date: 18 March 2023, Saturday


	Hartley Wintney		Poole Town

	1	X	2
	4.6	3.7	1.58
	4.48	3.93	1.67
	4.6	4.05	1.61
	4.33	4	1.63
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.5 ↑ (3.58)	3.92 ↑ (3.5)	1.62 ↓ (1.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hartley Wintney
20.3%

Draw
23.3%

Poole Town
56.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.3%

25.8%

48.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.3%

24.8%

50.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hartley Wintney has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

Poole Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Poole Town's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hartley Wintney than the current prediction. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Poole Town than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Poole Town, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Hartley Wintney - Poole Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and outsider (ranked 22 in the zone Relegation and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Southern League South Division (Play Offs)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Hartley Wintney won 3.

Recent matches Hartley Wintney is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Poole is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Poole could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Poole have a series of home games.

In this match Poole is a favorite.

Last 9 head-to-head matches Hartley Wintney won 5 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 14-8.

Including matches at home between the teams Hartley Wintney won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 9-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hartley Wintney
English Southern League South Division
11.03.23	Hartley Wintney - Beaconsfield Town	0:3 ✺
04.03.23	Yate Town - Hartley Wintney	0:1 ✺
25.02.23	Hartley Wintney - Winchester City	1:1 ✺
18.02.23	Truro City - Hartley Wintney	1:1 ✺
15.02.23	Swindon Supermarine - Hartley Wintney	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.6 LWTTL
- Poole Town
English Southern League South Division
14.03.23	Poole Town - Merthyr Town	2:0 ✺
11.03.23	Poole Town - Metropolitan Police	1:1 ✺
04.03.23	Poole Town - Chesham United	3:3 ✺
28.02.23	Poole Town - Plymouth Parkway	0:0 ✺
25.02.23	Bracknell Town - Poole Town	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 WTTTW

Latest Head to Head

English Southern League South Division
15.10.22	Poole Town - Hartley Wintney	1:0
19.03.22	Poole Town - Hartley Wintney	2:1
25.01.22	Hartley Wintney - Poole Town	2:1
14.03.20	Poole Town - Hartley Wintney	Canceled
19.11.19	Hartley Wintney - Poole Town	3:0
English FA Trophy
29.10.19	Poole Town - Hartley Wintney	0:1
English Southern League South Division
22.12.18	Hartley Wintney - Poole Town	4:3

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