Match Info

ENGLAND: Southern League Premier South - Round 20

Date: 14 December 2024, Saturday


	Poole Town		Merthyr Town

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.6	1.9
	3.15	3.65	1.96
	3.21	3.9	1.99
	3.27	3.83	2.01
	3.2	3.6	1.97
	3.15	3.65	1.96
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.18 ↑ (2.98)	3.71 ↑ (3.63)	1.97 ↓ (2.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Poole Town
28.8%

Draw
24.7%

Merthyr Town
46.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.6%

25.2%

44.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.2%

24.9%

44.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Poole Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Merthyr Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Poole Town than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Merthyr Town than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

Poole Town - Merthyr Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
34', 1 - 0, Da Costa G. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 6)
54', 1 - 1, Preston-Watkins K. ⚽,
57', 1 - 2, Twamley L. ⚽,
63', 1 - 3, Rees R. ⚽,
70', 1 - 4, Rees R. ⚽,
90', 1 - 5, Twamley L. ⚽,
90+5', 1 - 6, Twamley L. ⚽,

Preview

Watch a game between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a team which is a leader now (ranked 12 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ National League South).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Poole won 4.

Poole is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Merthyr in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Poole could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Merthyr have a series of guest games.

Merthyr will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 12 head-to-head matches Poole won 8 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 21:9 (average 1.8:0.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Poole won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 11:6 (average 1.8:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Poole Town
English Southern League South Division
30.11.24	Gloucester City - Poole Town	4:1 ✺
23.11.24	Poole Town - Hanwell Town	1:2 ✺
16.11.24	Poole Town - Hungerford Town	0:0 ✺
09.11.24	Basingstoke Town - Poole Town	1:3 ✺
02.11.24	Poole Town - Gosport Borough	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LLTWL
- Merthyr Town
English Southern League South Division
10.12.24	Taunton Town - Merthyr Town	2:3 ✺
30.11.24	Bracknell Town - Merthyr Town	1:2 ✺
26.11.24	Chertsey Town - Merthyr Town	1:2 ✺
16.11.24	Dorchester Town - Merthyr Town	2:2 ✺
09.11.24	Merthyr Town - Havant & Waterlooville	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 WWWTW

Latest Head to Head

English Southern League South Division
06.04.24	Poole Town - Merthyr Town	1:3
28.11.23	Merthyr Town - Poole Town	0:2
14.03.23	Poole Town - Merthyr Town	2:0
27.08.22	Merthyr Town - Poole Town	1:2
12.02.22	Poole Town - Merthyr Town	2:0
19.10.21	Merthyr Town - Poole Town	0:3
04.02.20	Poole Town - Merthyr Town	1:1

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