Match Info

ENGLAND: SOUTHERN LEAGUE SOUTH DIVISION - ROUND 20

Date: 22 November 2022, Tuesday


	Hartley Wintney		Salisbury

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.4	2.9
	2.03	3.5	3
	2.08	3.9	2.93
	2.05	3.3	3.1
	2.09	3.6	2.97
	2.05	3.5	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.06 ↓ (2.39)	3.53 ↓ (3.72)	3 ↑ (2.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 7.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hartley Wintney
44.1%

Draw
25.7%

Salisbury
30.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.3%

23.9%

38.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.3%

23.2%

39.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hartley Wintney has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Hartley Wintney's performance.

Salisbury has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Salisbury might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hartley Wintney than the current prediction. (-7.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Hartley Wintney that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Salisbury than the current prediction. (+9.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Salisbury could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	37.5%	25%

Hartley Wintney - Salisbury Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Hartley Wintney will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Salisbury will win (votes: 2 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Hartley Wintney: 4% – 71%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Super game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 18 and 11).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Hartley Wintney won 1.

Recent matches Hartley Wintney is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Salisbury is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match the chances to achieve triumph bor both teams are almost equal.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Hartley Wintney won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 12-18.

Including matches at home between the teams Hartley Wintney won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 5-9.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hartley Wintney
English Southern League South Division
19.11.22	Hayes & Yeading United - Hartley Wintney	1:2 ✺
12.11.22	Tiverton Town - Hartley Wintney	1:0 ✺
05.11.22	Hartley Wintney - Hanwell Town	2:1 ✺
01.11.22	Metropolitan Police - Hartley Wintney	3:1 ✺
25.10.22	Hartley Wintney - Hendon	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 WLWLL
- Salisbury FC
English Southern League South Division
19.11.22	Salisbury - Yate Town	0:0 ✺
12.11.22	Salisbury - Chesham United	1:2 ✺
05.11.22	Weston-super-Mare - Salisbury	3:1 ✺
01.11.22	Salisbury - Hanwell Town	2:0 ✺
29.10.22	Dorchester Town - Salisbury	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 TLLWL

Latest Head to Head

English Southern League South Division
16.08.22	Salisbury - Hartley Wintney	1:3
29.01.22	Hartley Wintney - Salisbury	2:3
09.10.21	Salisbury - Hartley Wintney	2:2
17.10.20	Hartley Wintney - Salisbury	0:2
28.09.19	Salisbury - Hartley Wintney	2:0
19.01.19	Hartley Wintney - Salisbury	3:4
17.11.18	Salisbury - Hartley Wintney	4:2

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