Match Info

Cymru Premier - Relegation Group - Round 25

Date: 13 February 2026, Friday

Location: Bridge Meadow Stadium (Haverfordwest)

Referee: Williams B. (Wal)


	Haverfordwest County		Bala Town

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.4	4.35
	1.76	3.51	4.63
	1.77	3.52	4.62	Watch
	1.8	3.25	4.4
	1.72	3.34	4.58
	1.75	3.5	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.76 ↓ (2.05)	3.42 ↑ (3.33)	4.51 ↑ (3.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Haverfordwest County
52.5%

Draw
27%

Bala Town
20.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.7%

27.5%

27.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45%

27.3%

27.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Haverfordwest County has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Haverfordwest County's performance.

Bala Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Bala Town might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Haverfordwest County than the current prediction. (-7.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Haverfordwest County that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bala Town than the current prediction. (+7.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Bala Town could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	16.7%	16.7%

Haverfordwest County - Bala Town Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Haverfordwest will win (votes: 8 - 72.7%). Bala Town will win (votes: 1 - 9.1%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 18.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Haverfordwest: 46.4% – 99%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Haverfordwest (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Knott I. (G) 3. Abbruzzese R. 28. Ahmun B. 6. Bacon J. 10. Hawkins D. 24. Humphreys I. 19. Kenniford K. 17. McCarthy K. 2. Rees D. (C) 8. Shephard C. 18. Walters G.	1. Torrance J. (G) 27. Billington S. 8. Burke N. (C) 4. Digbeu N. 15. Evans C. 22. Ferguson C. 3. Hall L. 17. Ibrahim O. 10. Owen J. 14. Samuels J. 23. White R.
Substitutes
20. Jones O. 11. Makwiramiti P. 31. Rees L. (G) 15. Shepherd T. 44. Thomas H. 21. Watkins A.	44. Dean H. 29. Dogan T. 21. Fisher C. 11. Higgins L. 16. Kelly T. 99. Mehasseb H.
Coaches
Pennock T.	Fisher S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
22', Billington S. ↓, Dogan T. ↑,
26', 1 - 0, Kenniford K. ⚽,
28', 2 - 0, Shephard C. ⚽,
44', Shephard C. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Samuels J. ↓, Dean H. ↑,
64', Humphreys I. ↓, Jones O. ↑,
66', 🟨,
68', Kenniford K. ↓, Makwiramiti P. ↑,
74', Owen J. ↓, Higgins L. ↑,
80', 3 - 0, Shephard C. ⚽,
82', McCarthy K. 🟨,
85', Ahmun B. ↓, Thomas H. ↑,
86', Evans C. ↓, Fisher C. ↑,
86', McCarthy K. ↓, Shepherd T. ↑,
86', Walters G. ↓, Watkins A. ↑,
86', Ferguson C. ↓, Mehasseb H. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Haverfordwest won 3.

Haverfordwest is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Bala Town has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Haverfordwest is considered a favorite.

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Haverfordwest won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 21:32. (average 1.2:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Haverfordwest won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 10:19. (average 1:1.9).

Outrights of Welsh Cymru Premier for now

Haverfordwest: 0.82%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Haverfordwest	12	3	1	8	7:17	-10	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Haverfordwest County
Welsh Cymru Premier
06.02.26	Briton Ferry Llansawel - Haverfordwest County	0:2 ✺
23.01.26	Cardiff Metropolitan - Haverfordwest County	0:2 ✺
13.01.26	Haverfordwest County - Briton Ferry Llansawel	2:3 ✺
30.12.25	Cardiff Metropolitan - Haverfordwest County	0:0 ✺
26.12.25	Haverfordwest County - Llanelli	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 WWLTW
- Bala Town
Welsh Cymru Premier
07.02.26	Bala Town - Cardiff Metropolitan	1:1 ✺
23.01.26	Bala Town - Flint Town United	3:4 ✺
13.01.26	Flint Town United - Bala Town	0:4 ✺
06.01.26	The New Saints - Bala Town	2:1 ✺
31.12.25	Bala Town - Caernarfon Town	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 TLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru Premier
05.12.25	Bala Town - Haverfordwest County	0:2
10.10.25	Haverfordwest County - Bala Town	2:0
15.03.25	Bala Town - Haverfordwest County	0:0
25.01.25	Haverfordwest County - Bala Town	3:2
23.11.24	Haverfordwest County - Bala Town	0:0
04.10.24	Bala Town - Haverfordwest County	0:2
13.01.24	Haverfordwest County - Bala Town	2:3

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