Match Info

Parva liga - Round 29

Date: 11 April 2025, Friday

Location: Stadion Spartak (Varna)

Referee: Stalev D. (Bul)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Diema Sport, Play Diema Xtra
Croatia	SportKlub
Russia	Match! Premier, Match TV
Serbia	Arena Premium 2


	Spartak Varna		Krumovgrad

	1	X	2
	1.53	3.9	6.25	Watch
	1.57	3.6	5.5
	1.55	3.7	6.2	Watch
	1.54	3.82	6.51	Watch
	1.6	3.72	6	Watch
	1.55	3.7	6.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.56 ↓ (1.76)	3.74 ↑ (3.47)	6.11 ↑ (4.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Spartak Varna
59.8%

Draw
24.9%

Krumovgrad
15.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.9%

26.8%

20.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54%

26.3%

19.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Spartak Varna has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Spartak Varna's performance.

Krumovgrad has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Spartak Varna than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Spartak Varna that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Krumovgrad than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	5.6%	11.1%

Spartak Varna - Krumovgrad Predictions

Users Predictions: Spartak Varna will win (15 of 18 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 66.11% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Spartak Varna will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
76. Velichkov M. (G) 3. Juric-Petrasilo M. 44. Granchov A. 4. Strauss F. 14. Ivey R. 5. Baurenski Y. 8. Lesniak F. 11. Mitev V. (C) 39. Vutov A. 9. Mitkov D. 7. Berna	1. Georgiev Y. (C) 13. Isuf A. 25. Rabotov S. 5. Guinari P. 24. Marin L. 23. Fall M. 8. Gonzalez J. 18. Sy S. 10. Itu C. 70. Veiga T. 19. Milev N.
Substitutes
13. Georgiev A. 16. Ilic C. 18. Ivanov D. 21. Konate P. 23. Kovalyov M. (G) 20. Lozev D. 19. Stoev M. 6. Tsvetkov A. 17. Xande	14. Cova A. 22. Dost E. 91. Ivanov H. 27. Keita I. 21. Makendzhiev B. (G) 4. N'Guessan S. 44. Obissa S. 99. Sellouf A. 11. Yusein O.
Coaches
Kirov N.	Kirilov R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
22', 1 - 0, Vutov A. ⚽,
34', Granchov A. ↓, Tsvetkov A. ↑,
45', Granchov A. 🟨,
45+7', Baurenski Y. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
47', Sy S. 🟨,
61', Sy S. ↓, Cova A. ↑,
68', Cova A. 🟨,
68', Mitev V. 🟨,
75', Mitkov D. ↓, Lozev D. ↑,
75', Berna ↓, Xande ↑,
77', Isuf A. ↓, Keita I. ↑,
78', Veiga T. ↓, Sellouf A. ↑,
85', Mitev V. ↓, Konate P. ↑,
85', Ivey R. ↓, Ilic C. ↑,
90+2', Gonzalez J. 🟨,
90+2', Vutov A. 🟨,

Preview

This match will be played by one of a leader and an outsider (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Parva liga (Conference League Group: ) and 14 in the zone Parva liga (Relegation Group: )).

Krumovgrad is Parva liga (Relegation Group )

Spartak Varna is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Krumovgrad is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match Spartak Varna is a favorite.

There will not play in Krumovgrad: Tartov G. (Yellow Cards) Tsvetanov M. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Spartak Varna: Johnson K. (Injury) Nachev D. (Injury)

There are questionable in Krumovgrad: Lucas Santana (Injury)

Last 2 head-to-head matches Spartak Varna won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2:0 (average 1:0).

Including matches at home between the teams Spartak Varna won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1:0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Spartak Varna
Bulgarian Parva Liga
07.04.25	Lokomotiv Plovdiv - Spartak Varna	1:2 ✺
01.04.25	Spartak Varna - Botev Vratsa	1:0 ✺
28.03.25	Lokomotiv Sofia - Spartak Varna	2:1 ✺
16.03.25	Spartak Varna - Septemvri Sofia	4:2 ✺
08.03.25	Cherno More Varna - Spartak Varna	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.4 WWLWT
- FC Krumovgrad
Bulgarian Parva Liga
06.04.25	Krumovgrad - Hebar Pazardzhik	1:0 ✺
03.04.25	Ludogorets Razgrad - Krumovgrad	3:0 ✺
29.03.25	CSKA 1948 Sofia - Krumovgrad	4:1 ✺
14.03.25	Krumovgrad - Lokomotiv Plovdiv	0:0 ✺
07.03.25	Botev Vratsa - Krumovgrad	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 WLLTT

Latest Head to Head

Bulgarian Parva Liga
02.11.24	Krumovgrad - Spartak Varna	0:1
Bulgarian Cup
01.11.23	Spartak Varna - Krumovgrad	1:0

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