Match Info

TOPLYGA - Round 17

Date: 14 June 2026, Sunday

Location: Raudondvario stadionas (Raudondvario)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
Lithuania	LNK


	Hegelmann Litauen		Kauno Žalgiris

	1	X	2
	6.25	4.20	1.39
	6.50	4.00	1.36
	6.90	4.55	1.43
	6.12	4.36	1.46	Watch
	6.50	4.00	1.40
	7.11	4.27	1.44	Watch
	4.5	3.45	1.54
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.27 ↑ (4.81)	4.12 ↑ (3.63)	1.43 ↓ (1.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hegelmann Litauen
14.5%

Draw
22.1%

Kauno Žalgiris
63.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.7%

24.8%

56.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.8%

23.6%

59.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hegelmann Litauen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

Kauno Žalgiris has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Kauno Žalgiris's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hegelmann Litauen than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kauno Žalgiris than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

Hegelmann Litauen - Kauno Žalgiris Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Bagdonavicius R. (G) 19. Pasilys D. 16. Remeikis M. 18. Sadauskas R. 30. Isaac B. 37. Radonja V. 77. Wesley 8. Armanavicius V. (C) 10. Oum Gouet S. 67. Kaulinis A. 11. Njoya A.	55. Svedkauskas T. (G) 45. Moutachy J. 3. Tolordava A. 4. Racic L. 37. Iyobosa Edokpolor N. 10. Sirgedas G. (C) 32. Baldassarra F. 15. Leo Ribeiro 24. Burba M. 9. Ikaunieks D. 7. Benchaib A.
Substitutes
66. Harouna A. 20. Jonaitis L. 71. Jonavicius E. 21. Kausinis E. 32. Mendes K. A. 1. Paukste L. (G) 5. Puerto A. 45. Shchedryi A. 24. Sinkevicius D. 26. Slendzoka D. 22. Tibell D.	1. Aliukonis J. (G) 2. Burdzilauskas T. 11. Cernych F. 8. Karashima Y. 77. Lekiatas R. 22. Mikelionis D. (G) 70. Ourega F. 79. Paulauskas V. 6. Pavlovic D.
Coaches
Aramburu Erneta M.	Cerniauskas E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
21', 0 - 1, Iyobosa Edokpolor N. ⚽, Sirgedas G. (A),
38', 1 - 1, Njoya A. ⚽, Sadauskas R. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
68', 🟨,
74', 🟨,
75', 🟨,
75', 🟥,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 8 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hegelmann won 0.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Hegelmann may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Kauno Žalgiris is the clear favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Hegelmann won 4 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 25:41. (average 1.3:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Hegelmann won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:12. (average 1.2:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Kauno Zalgiris	28	14	9	5	56:20	36	51
8	Hegelmann	29	4	14	11	31:48	-17	26

Last Results with these Odds

Kauno Žalgiris - the odds 1.6 are the expected chance of winning is 56.44%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hegelmann Litauen
Lithuanian TOPLYGA
29.05.26	Transinvest - Hegelmann Litauen	2:1 ✺
24.05.26	Žalgiris - Hegelmann Litauen	1:3 ✺
Lithuanian Cup
20.05.26	Transinvest - Hegelmann Litauen	2:0 ✺
Lithuanian TOPLYGA
16.05.26	Hegelmann Litauen - Sūduva Marijampolė	2:2 ✺
09.05.26	Hegelmann Litauen - FA Šiauliai	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 LWLTT
- FK Kauno Žalgiris
Lithuanian TOPLYGA
31.05.26	Kauno Žalgiris - Žalgiris	0:1 ✺
23.05.26	Sūduva Marijampolė - Kauno Žalgiris	2:1 ✺
Lithuanian Cup
19.05.26	Riteriai - Kauno Žalgiris	0:4 ✺
Lithuanian TOPLYGA
16.05.26	Kauno Žalgiris - FA Šiauliai	0:0 ✺
10.05.26	Panevėžys - Kauno Žalgiris	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LLWTT

Latest Head to Head

Lithuanian TOPLYGA
11.04.26	Kauno Žalgiris - Hegelmann Litauen	5:0
01.10.25	Hegelmann Litauen - Kauno Žalgiris	1:1
27.08.25	Kauno Žalgiris - Hegelmann Litauen	2:1
19.06.25	Hegelmann Litauen - Kauno Žalgiris	1:2
16.04.25	Kauno Žalgiris - Hegelmann Litauen	3:1
24.08.24	Hegelmann Litauen - Kauno Žalgiris	1:1
23.06.24	Kauno Žalgiris - Hegelmann Litauen	4:1

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