Match Info

TOPLYGA - Round 33

Date: 19 October 2026, Monday 🏁 Finished

Location: Marijampole Football Arena (Marijampole) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Lithuania	18:45	BTV, LNK


	Sūduva Marijampolė		Kauno Žalgiris

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.50	3.20	1.90
	3.50	3.10	1.87
	3.92	3.32	1.97
	3.9	3.36	1.94	Watch
	3.85	3.25	1.95
	3.81	3.15	1.89	Watch
	3.55	3.25	1.96
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.72 ↑ (3.45)	3.23 ↓ (3.33)	1.93 ↓ (1.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sūduva Marijampolė
24.5%

Draw
28.2%

Kauno Žalgiris
47.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

26.3%

27.3%

46.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.2%

26.2%

48.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sūduva Marijampolė has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Kauno Žalgiris has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sūduva Marijampolė than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kauno Žalgiris than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	0%	66.7%

Sūduva Marijampolė - Kauno Žalgiris Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Sūduva will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Kauno Žalgiris will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Zenkevicius G. (G) 75. Stockunas E. 8. Lawson S. (C) 5. Baltrunas Z. 18. Milasius T. 7. Seck I. 19. Tangiri F. 6. Sabo A. 11. Chajia M. 94. Sanokho S. M. 14. Steponavicius F.	55. Svedkauskas T. (C) 62. Kastrati L. II. 77. Lekiatas R. 23. Hernandez A. 33. Konatar M. 8. Karashima Y. 24. Burba M. 20. Kalik A. 14. Slivka V. 9. Krekovic L. 27. Debeljuh G.
Substitutes
21. Agbor E. 26. Antanavicius D. 10. Haydary O. 9. Lucky T. 13. Mikulenas M. 20. Omori Y. 66. Pacesa R. (G) 46. Skamarakas I. 16. Tsykalo Y. 4. Uzochukwu H. 80. Yefremov Y. 15. Zivanovic A.	32. Baldassarra F. 11. Cernych F. 17. Fiolic I. 37. Iyobosa Edokpolor N. 15. Leo Ribeiro 22. Mikelionis D. (G) 45. Moutachy J. 70. Ourega F. 4. Racic L. 19. Renan Oliveira 10. Sirgedas G. 3. Tolordava A.
Coaches
Vencevicius D.	Sopic Z.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
22', Chajia M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
51', Slivka V. 🟨,
55', Lawson S. 🟨,
58', Burba M. ↓, Ourega F. ↑,
67', Kastrati L. II. ↓, Iyobosa Edokpolor N. ↑,
67', Konatar M. ↓, Moutachy J. ↑,
70', Steponavicius F. ↓, Haydary O. ↑,
70', Seck I. ↓, Omori Y. ↑,
82', Debeljuh G. ↓, Sirgedas G. ↑,
82', Krekovic L. ↓, Renan Oliveira ↑,
83', Chajia M. ↓, Mikulenas M. ↑,
87', Milasius T. ↓, Zivanovic A. ↑,
90+3', 0 - 1, Renan Oliveira ⚽,
90+4', Kalik A. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sūduva won 2.

Sūduva is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Performances by Kauno Žalgiris have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Kauno Žalgiris may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Both teams have recently been through a demanding run of away matches.

Kauno Žalgiris is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Sūduva has recorded 4 wins, 8 draws, and 8 losses, with a goal aggregate of 23:38 (averaging 1.2:1.9 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Sūduva against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses, with 10:21 goals (averaging 1:2.1 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Kauno Zalgiris	30	15	10	5	57:20	37	55
3	Suduva	30	13	11	6	39:30	9	50

Last Results with these Odds

Kauno Žalgiris - the odds 1.95 are the expected chance of winning is 46.45%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sūduva Marijampolė
Lithuanian TOPLYGA
10.10.26	Žalgiris - Sūduva Marijampolė	4:0 ✺
Club Friendly
29.09.26	Jagiellonia Białystok - Sūduva Marijampolė	5:0 ✺
Lithuanian TOPLYGA
20.09.26	Hegelmann Litauen - Sūduva Marijampolė	1:1 ✺
13.09.26	Sūduva Marijampolė - Žalgiris	0:0 ✺
09.09.26	Kauno Žalgiris - Sūduva Marijampolė	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LLTTL
- FK Kauno Žalgiris
UEFA Europa Conference League
15.10.26	Brighton & Hove Albion - Kauno Žalgiris	4:0 ✺
Lithuanian Cup
11.10.26	Minija Kretinga - Kauno Žalgiris	0:3 ✺
Lithuanian TOPLYGA
20.09.26	FA Šiauliai - Kauno Žalgiris	0:2 ✺
16.09.26	Žalgiris - Kauno Žalgiris	3:2 ✺
13.09.26	Panevėžys - Kauno Žalgiris	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Lithuanian TOPLYGA
09.09.26	Kauno Žalgiris - Sūduva Marijampolė	5:1
23.05.26	Sūduva Marijampolė - Kauno Žalgiris	2:1
21.03.26	Kauno Žalgiris - Sūduva Marijampolė	1:1
Club Friendly
17.01.26	Sūduva Marijampolė - Kauno Žalgiris	0:4
Lithuanian TOPLYGA
27.10.25	Sūduva Marijampolė - Kauno Žalgiris	1:0
24.09.25	Kauno Žalgiris - Sūduva Marijampolė	1:1
Lithuanian Cup
10.08.25	Kauno Žalgiris - Sūduva Marijampolė	0:2

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