Match Info

CHINA: Jia League - Round 20

Date: 25 August 2024, Sunday

Location: Harbin International Convention and Exhibition Centre Stadium (Harbin)


	Heilongjiang Ice City		Nanjing City

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.45	3	2.6
	2.55	3.1	2.6	Watch
	2.6	3.11	2.74
	2.69	3.03	2.59	Watch
	2.8	2.75	2.6
	3.04	2.83	2.59	Watch
	2.55	3.1	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.67 ↓ (3.18)	2.99 ↓ (3.18)	2.62 ↑ (2.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Heilongjiang Ice City
34.3%

Draw
30.7%

Nanjing City
35%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.1%

41.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.6%

28.6%

41.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Heilongjiang Ice City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Heilongjiang Ice City's performance.

Nanjing City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Nanjing City might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Heilongjiang Ice City than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nanjing City than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Nanjing City could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Heilongjiang Ice City - Nanjing City Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
18. Fan Bojian	22. Huang Peng
1. Lu Ning (G)	15. Jiang Shichao
22. Ma Yujun	28. Ling Jie
11. Montano I.	17. Meng Zhen
28. Shao Shuai	7. Nem Jefferson
27. Wu Y.	20. Ogbu M.
19. Xu H.	21. Qi Yuxi (G)
17. Yan Yu	30. Tayir Shewketjan
2. Zhang Yujie	27. Wang Hao
4. Zhao Chengle	6. Wang Haoran
6. Zhu Jiaxuan	9. Yang He
Substitutes
15. Ablimit Subi	29. Dong H.
42. Liang P.	2. Dujardin A.
3. Li Boyang	16. Gong Hankui
14. Palacios B. D.	45. Ji Xiang
7. Piao Taoyu	11. Matheus Moresche
10. Tang Shi	18. Nan Xiaoheng
8. Wang Jinpeng	42. Shi Chenglong (G)
44. Wen Jialong	33. Sun Enming
24. Yang C. (G)	8. Wei Yuren
20. Zhang J.	38. Xu Zhenyu
33. Zhang Zimin	39. Yu M.
16. Zhou Pinxi	31. Zhu Qiwen
Coaches
. Duan X.	. Cortez F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
19', Shao Shuai 🟨,
33', Wang Hao 🟨,
44', 1 - 0, Fan Bojian ⚽, Yan Yu (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Wang Haoran ↓, Ji Xiang ↑,
46', Meng Zhen ↓, Matheus Moresche ↑,
60', 2 - 0, Yan Yu ⚽, Ma Yujun (A),
63', Fan Bojian 🟨,
64', Huang Peng 🟨,
67', Jiang Shichao ↓, Dong H. ↑,
67', Wang Hao ↓, Sun Enming ↑,
70', Yan Yu ↓, Zhang J. ↑,
74', 2 - 1, Matheus Moresche ⚽, Ogbu M. (A),
77', Zhu Jiaxuan 🟨,
82', Dong H. ↓, Zhu Qiwen ↑,
87', Wu Y. 🟨,
89', Ling Jie ↓, Wei Yuren ↑,
90', Wu Y. ↓, Zhang Zimin ↑,
90', Fan Bojian ↓, Li Boyang ↑,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 13 and 9).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Heilongjiang Ice City won 2.

Two teams are playing changeable.

Nanjing City could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Heilongjiang Ice City have a series of home games.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Heilongjiang Ice City won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 10-7.

Including matches at home between the teams Heilongjiang Ice City won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Heilongjiang Ice City
Chinese Jia League
18.08.24	Heilongjiang Ice City - Dalian Young Boy	1:2 ✺
20.07.24	Heilongjiang Ice City - Yunnan Yukun	0:0 ✺
13.07.24	Heilongjiang Ice City - Chongqing Tongliang Long	0:0 ✺
06.07.24	Heilongjiang Ice City - Guangzhou Evergrande	1:3 ✺
30.06.24	Qingdao Red Lions - Heilongjiang Ice City	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.8 LTTLW
- Nanjing City FC
Chinese FA Cup
21.08.24	Nanjing City - Chengdu Rongcheng	1:2 ✺
Chinese Jia League
17.08.24	Liaoning Tieren - Nanjing City	5:1 ✺
20.07.24	Yanbian Longding - Nanjing City	1:2 ✺
Chinese FA Cup
17.07.24	Qingdao Hainiu - Nanjing City	0:2 ✺
Chinese Jia League
13.07.24	Nanjing City - Yunnan Yukun	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 LLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Chinese Jia League
06.04.24	Nanjing City - Heilongjiang Ice City	3:2
29.07.23	Heilongjiang Ice City - Nanjing City	3:0
29.11.22	Heilongjiang Ice City - Nanjing City	0:1
04.11.22	Nanjing City - Heilongjiang Ice City	1:2
17.12.21	Nanjing City - Heilongjiang Ice City	2:2
28.11.21	Heilongjiang Ice City - Nanjing City	1:0

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