Match Info

2. Bundesliga - Round 9

Date: 25 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Holstein-Stadion (Kiel) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Gerach T. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Argentina	09:30	Disney+
Armenia	16:30	Fast Sports
Australia	23:30	beIN Connect
Austria	13:30	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria Top Event, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga 2
Bosnia And Herzegovina	13:30	Arena Sport 4P
Chile	09:30	Disney+
Colombia	07:30	Disney+
Croatia	13:30	MAXtv To Go, SportKlub 3
Denmark	13:30	Viaplay
Finland	14:30	Viaplay
Georgia	16:30	Setanta Sports 2
Germany	13:30	Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga 2, Sky Sport Top Event, WOW
Greece	14:30	Nova Sports 5
Hong Kong	20:30	beIN SPORTS MAX
Iceland	12:30	Viaplay
Laos	19:30	beIN Connect
Malaysia	20:30	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Malta	13:30	GO TV, TSN Malta 5
Netherlands	13:30	Viaplay
New Zealand	01:30	beIN Connect
North Macedonia	13:30	MaxTV GO
Norway	13:30	Viaplay
Peru	07:30	Disney+
Philippines	20:30	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Portugal	12:30	DAZN / App
Romania	14:30	Prima Sport PPV 2
Saudi Arabia	15:30	MBC Shahid
Serbia	13:30	Arena Sport 2
Singapore	20:30	beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovakia	13:30	Sport TV2
Spain	13:30	DAZN Espana
Sweden	13:30	Viaplay
Switzerland	13:30	Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga 2, Sky Sport Top Event
Thailand	19:30	beIN Connect
Uruguay	09:30	Disney+
Venezuela	08:30	Disney+
International	12:30	OneFootball TV


	Holstein Kiel		Dynamo Dresden

	1	X	2
	2.20	3.60	2.88	Watch
	2.30	3.70	2.85
	2.25	3.70	2.85	Watch
	2.33	3.80	3.03
	2.34	3.75	2.78	Watch
	2.25	3.70	3.00
	2.26	3.69	2.95	Watch
	2.28	3.65	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.28 ↑ (2.18)	3.7 ↓ (3.82)	2.9 ↓ (2.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Holstein Kiel
41.7%

Draw
25.6%

Dynamo Dresden
32.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

43.3%

24.7%

31.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43%

24.9%

32.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Holstein Kiel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

Dynamo Dresden has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Holstein Kiel than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dynamo Dresden than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.9%	0%	11.1%

Holstein Kiel - Dynamo Dresden Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Holstein Kiel (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Holstein Kiel (1.73) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Holstein Kiel will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.36% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Holstein Kiel (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Weiner T. (G) 32. Sekine H. 5. Madsen N. 26. Zec D. 40. Parduzi L. 20. Kapralik A. 28. Meffert J. (C) 15. Davidsen K. 11. de Regt G. 9. Kvilitaia G. 19. Harres P.	22. Grill L. (G) 32. Sterner J. 6. Rapp N. 42. Muller F. 44. Straudi S. 18. Wagner R. 21. Raschl T. 24. Covic P. 27. Hauptmann N. (C) 20. Bobzien B. 9. Vermeij V.
Substitutes
17. Alidou F. 13. Nekic I. 44. Richter Monserrat M. 41. Rothenhagen L. (G) 30. Tasdelen T. 10. Therkelsen J. 47. Tolkin J. 27. Ugoh I. 43. Wiese T.	33. Daferner C. 16. Froling N. 8. Herrmann L. 11. Inanoglu K. 10. Lemmer J. 17. Muhamedbegovic A. 34. Neininger T. 19. Rossipal A. 1. Schreiber T. (G)
Coaches
Walter T.	Stamm T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
2', Straudi S. 🟨,
9', 1 - 0, Kvilitaia G. ⚽, Harres P. (A),
37', Davidsen K. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Davidsen K. ↓, Ugoh I. ↑,
57', Kvilitaia G. ↓, Alidou F. ↑,
61', Zec D. 🟨,
62', Parduzi L. 🟨,
63', Hauptmann N. (Penalty Awarded),
64', Meffert J. 🟨,
66', Kapralik A. 🟨,
72', Covic P. ↓, Inanoglu K. ↑,
73', Kapralik A. ↓, Therkelsen J. ↑,
73', 2 - 0, Therkelsen J. ⚽,
84', Hauptmann N. ↓, Lemmer J. ↑,
84', Vermeij V. ↓, Froling N. ↑,
85', 3 - 0, Harres P. ⚽,
88', de Regt G. ↓, Wiese T. ↑,
88', Harres P. ↓, Richter Monserrat M. ↑,
90+3', Bobzien B. ↓, Daferner C. ↑,

Preview

A determined lower-tier side seeks an essential result against mid-table opposition (ranked 18th in the Relegation - 3. Liga and 11th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Holstein Kiel won 3.

Both teams have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.

Holstein Kiel could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

Confirmed absences for Holstein Kiel: Abe T. (Back Injury) Muqaj H. (Knee Injury) Rosenboom L. (Knee Injury) Roslyng F. (Knee Injury) Skrzybski S. (Muscle Injury).

Confirmed absences for Dynamo Dresden: Bunning L. (Head Injury) Keller T. (Inactive) Schmidt K. (Knee Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Holstein Kiel: Davidsen K. (Muscle Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Dynamo Dresden: Rapp N. (Injury).

In the last 14 head-to-head meetings, Holstein Kiel has recorded 10 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 25:8 (averaging 1.8:0.6 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Holstein Kiel against this opponent, the record stands at 6 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 14:4 goals (averaging 2:0.6 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Holstein Kiel	9	1	5	3	10:11	-1	8
15	SG Dynamo Dresden	9	2	2	5	11:18	-7	8

Outrights of German 2 Bundesliga for now

Holstein Kiel: 0.68%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Holstein Kiel
German 2 Bundesliga
16.10.26	Holstein Kiel - Hertha Berlin	0:0 ✺
09.10.26	Eintracht Braunschweig - Holstein Kiel	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
03.10.26	Holstein Kiel - Viborg	3:1 ✺
German 2 Bundesliga
19.09.26	Holstein Kiel - Osnabrück	1:1 ✺
13.09.26	Heidenheim - Holstein Kiel	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 TLWTL
- Dynamo Dresden
German 2 Bundesliga
18.10.26	Dynamo Dresden - Magdeburg	2:0 ✺
10.10.26	Osnabrück - Dynamo Dresden	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
02.10.26	Teplice - Dynamo Dresden	2:0 ✺
German 2 Bundesliga
19.09.26	Dynamo Dresden - Hertha Berlin	1:2 ✺
12.09.26	Eintracht Braunschweig - Dynamo Dresden	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WTLLT

Latest Head to Head

German 2 Bundesliga
17.05.26	Dynamo Dresden - Holstein Kiel	2:1
20.12.25	Holstein Kiel - Dynamo Dresden	2:1
16.04.22	Dynamo Dresden - Holstein Kiel	0:0
05.11.21	Holstein Kiel - Dynamo Dresden	2:1
18.06.20	Holstein Kiel - Dynamo Dresden	2:0
30.11.19	Dynamo Dresden - Holstein Kiel	1:2
12.05.19	Holstein Kiel - Dynamo Dresden	3:0

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