Match Info

2. Bundesliga - Round 17

Date: 20 December 2025, Saturday

Location: Holstein-Stadion (Kiel)

Referee: Schroder R. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Holstein Kiel		Dynamo Dresden

	1	X	2
	1.83	3.75	4.1	Watch
	1.82	3.6	3.95	Watch
	1.9	3.95	4.23
	1.85	3.76	4.07	Watch
	1.83	3.5	4
	1.87	3.62	3.91	Watch
	1.84	3.66	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.85 ↓ (2.05)	3.69 ↑ (3.56)	4.04 ↑ (3.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Holstein Kiel
51.1%

Draw
25.6%

Dynamo Dresden
23.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.7%

26.4%

27.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.8%

25.2%

26.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Holstein Kiel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Holstein Kiel's performance.

Dynamo Dresden has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Holstein Kiel than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dynamo Dresden than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	33.3%	33.3%

Holstein Kiel - Dynamo Dresden Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Holstein Kiel will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Dynamo Dresden will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Holstein Kiel: 2.5% – 64.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Dynamo Dresden (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Dynamo Dresden (1.79) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Dynamo Dresden (1.99) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Dynamo Dresden (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Krumrey J. (G) 6. Ivezic M. 26. Zec D. 13. Nekic I. 23. Rosenboom L. 22. Schwab S. 39. Wagner R. 29. Niehoff N. 20. Kapralik A. 7. Skrzybski S. 19. Harres P.	1. Schreiber T. (G) 13. Pauli J. 29. Boeder L. 42. Muller F. 2. Faber K. 6. Amoako K. 8. Herrmann L. 19. Rossipal A. 10. Lemmer J. 27. Hauptmann N. 9. Vermeij V.
Substitutes
17. Cvjetinovic M. 15. Davidsen K. 16. Kelati A. 24. Knudsen M. 25. Muller M. 2. Roslyng F. 10. Therkelsen J. 47. Tolkin J. 1. Weiner T. (G)	23. Bunning L. 17. Casar A. 33. Daferner C. 16. Froling N. 15. Kammerknecht C. 30. Kutschke S. 37. Mesenholer D. (G) 25. Oehmichen J. 5. Sapina V.
Coaches
Rapp M.	Stamm T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
5', Pauli J. 🟨,
12', 0 - 1, Vermeij V. ⚽, Herrmann L. (A),
29', 1 - 1, Harres P. ⚽, Skrzybski S. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
51', 2 - 1, Nekic I. ⚽, Niehoff N. (A),
54', Boeder L. ↓, Froling N. ↑,
63', Niehoff N. ↓, Tolkin J. ↑,
64', Kapralik A. ↓, Therkelsen J. ↑,
74', Pauli J. ↓, Kammerknecht C. ↑,
74', Herrmann L. ↓, Sapina V. ↑,
75', Nekic I. ↓, Roslyng F. ↑,
75', Skrzybski S. ↓, Knudsen M. ↑,
84', Hauptmann N. ↓, Kutschke S. ↑,
84', Vermeij V. ↓, Daferner C. ↑,
88', Wagner R. ↓, Davidsen K. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 13 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ 3. Liga).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Holstein Kiel won 4.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Dynamo Dresden may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Holstein Kiel has had a series of away games.

In this match, Holstein Kiel is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Holstein Kiel: Bernhardsson A. (Foot Injury) Erras P. (Concussion) Johansson C. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Dynamo Dresden: Grill L. (Knee Injury) Marx J. (Ankle Injury) Menzel T. (Injury) Risch S. (Shoulder Injury) Zickler J. (Shoulder Injury)

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Holstein Kiel won 9 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 22:5. (average 1.8:0.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Holstein Kiel won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 12:3. (average 2:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Holstein Kiel
German 2 Bundesliga
13.12.25	Magdeburg - Holstein Kiel	3:3 ✺
07.12.25	Eintracht Braunschweig - Holstein Kiel	1:1 ✺
German DFB Pokal
03.12.25	Hamburger SV - Holstein Kiel	1:2 penalties ✺
German 2 Bundesliga
29.11.25	Holstein Kiel - Hertha Berlin	0:1 ✺
23.11.25	Kaiserslautern - Holstein Kiel	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 TTWLL
- Dynamo Dresden
German 2 Bundesliga
12.12.25	Dynamo Dresden - Eintracht Braunschweig	2:3 ✺
06.12.25	Kaiserslautern - Dynamo Dresden	3:1 ✺
30.11.25	Dynamo Dresden - Fortuna Düsseldorf	2:1 ✺
21.11.25	Bochum - Dynamo Dresden	1:2 ✺
07.11.25	Dynamo Dresden - Nürnberg	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 LLWWL

Latest Head to Head

German 2 Bundesliga
16.04.22	Dynamo Dresden - Holstein Kiel	0:0
05.11.21	Holstein Kiel - Dynamo Dresden	2:1
18.06.20	Holstein Kiel - Dynamo Dresden	2:0
30.11.19	Dynamo Dresden - Holstein Kiel	1:2
12.05.19	Holstein Kiel - Dynamo Dresden	3:0
09.12.18	Dynamo Dresden - Holstein Kiel	0:2
14.04.18	Dynamo Dresden - Holstein Kiel	0:4

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