Match Info

National League South - Round 32

Date: 14 April 2026, Tuesday

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DAZN
Bolivia	DAZN
Brazil	DAZN Brasil
Canada	DAZN Canada
Ecuador	DAZN
France	DAZN France
Italy	DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
Paraguay	DAZN
Portugal	DAZN / App
Spain	DAZN Espana
United-kingdom	DAZN
Uruguay	DAZN
Usa	DAZN USA
Venezuela	DAZN


	Hornchurch		Chelmsford City

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.35	2.92
	2.18	3.43	3.18
	2.15	3.63	3.05	Watch
	2.2	3.2	3.1
	2.13	3.28	3.08
	2.05	3.4	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.15 ↑ (1.92)	3.38 ↓ (3.58)	3.1 ↓ (3.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Hornchurch
42.9%

Draw
27.3%

Chelmsford City
29.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.9%

25.7%

26.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.6%

26.6%

25.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hornchurch has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

Chelmsford City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hornchurch than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Hornchurch, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chelmsford City than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

Hornchurch - Chelmsford City Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
5', 0 - 1, Barbrook H. ⚽,
16', 0 - 2, Crichlow K. ⚽,
33', 1 - 2, Poleon D. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
48', 2 - 2, Rees J. ⚽,
54', 3 - 2, Balanta A. ⚽,
77', 3 - 3, Barham J. ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ National League South (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 13).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hornchurch won 0.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Hornchurch may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Hornchurch could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Hornchurch won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 1:10. (average 0.2:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Hornchurch won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 0:6. (average 0:2).

Outrights of English National League South for now

Chelmsford: 5.21%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
16	Chelmsford	9	1	8	0	9:8	1	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AFC Hornchurch
English National League South
11.04.26	Hornchurch - Ebbsfleet United	1:0 ✺
06.04.26	Maidstone United - Hornchurch	5:4 ✺
03.04.26	Hornchurch - Dagenham & Redbridge	3:0 ✺
28.03.26	Farnborough - Hornchurch	2:2 ✺
24.03.26	Chesham United - Hornchurch	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 WLWTW
- Chelmsford City
English National League South
11.04.26	Chelmsford City - Maidenhead United	1:1 ✺
06.04.26	Dagenham & Redbridge - Chelmsford City	3:3 ✺
03.04.26	Chelmsford City - Enfield Town	3:0 ✺
30.03.26	Chelmsford City - Totton	1:1 ✺
28.03.26	Chippenham Town - Chelmsford City	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 TTWTW

Latest Head to Head

English National League South
10.11.25	Chelmsford City - Hornchurch	2:0
18.01.25	Chelmsford City - Hornchurch	2:1
21.09.24	Hornchurch - Chelmsford City	0:2
Club Friendly
20.07.19	Hornchurch - Chelmsford City	0:2
English National League South
30.10.12	Hornchurch - Chelmsford City	0:2

Upcoming Matches