Match Info

National League South - Round 29

Date: 24 March 2026, Tuesday

Location: The Meadow (Chesham)


	Chesham United		Hornchurch

	1	X	2
	3	3.2	2.05
	2.52	3.3	2.52
	2.59	3.31	2.66
	2.53	3.47	2.58	Watch
	2.5	3.1	2.63
	2.49	3.18	2.54
	3.1	3.33	2.14
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.68 ↓ (2.86)	3.27 ↓ (3.51)	2.45 ↑ (2.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chesham United
34.3%

Draw
28.1%

Hornchurch
37.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.5%

26.5%

41.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.8%

27.1%

42%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chesham United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

Hornchurch has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chesham United than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hornchurch than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

Chesham United - Hornchurch Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
7', 0 - 1, Rees J. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
54', 0 - 2, Rees J. ⚽,
65', 1 - 2, Oliyide K. ⚽,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 12 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ National League).

Chesham is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Hornchurch has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Hornchurch will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Chesham won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:6. (average 1:2).

Including home match between the teams, Chesham won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3.

Outrights of English National League South for now

Chesham: 0.78%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
19	Chesham	10	3	1	6	16:19	-3	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chesham United
English National League South
21.03.26	Chesham United - Maidstone United	4:2 ✺
17.03.26	Chesham United - Totton	1:2 ✺
14.03.26	Torquay United - Chesham United	2:1 ✺
07.03.26	Chesham United - Weston-super-Mare	4:0 ✺
03.03.26	Worthing - Chesham United	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WLLWL
- AFC Hornchurch
English National League South
21.03.26	Hornchurch - Hemel Hempstead Town	0:1 ✺
14.03.26	Bath City - Hornchurch	2:2 ✺
10.03.26	Horsham - Hornchurch	0:2 ✺
07.03.26	Hornchurch - Slough Town	2:3 ✺
03.03.26	Hornchurch - Salisbury	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LTWLW

Latest Head to Head

English National League South
04.11.25	Hornchurch - Chesham United	1:1
22.02.25	Hornchurch - Chesham United	2:1
03.12.24	Chesham United - Hornchurch	1:3

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