Match Info

National League South - Round 43

Date: 6 April 2026, Monday

Location: Gallagher Stadium (Maidstone)


	Maidstone United		Hornchurch

	1	X	2
	1.9	3.4	3.65
	1.93	3.57	3.76
	1.92	3.67	3.63	Watch
	1.91	3.3	3.7
	1.87	3.4	3.69
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.91 ↑ (1.88)	3.47 ↓ (3.64)	3.69 (3.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Maidstone United
48.4%

Draw
26.6%

Hornchurch
25%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.4%

25.5%

25.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51%

24.7%

24.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Maidstone United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Hornchurch has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Maidstone United than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hornchurch than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

Maidstone United - Hornchurch Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (4 - 4)
5', 1 - 0, Gilbert J. ⚽,
10', 2 - 0, Court R. ⚽,
12', 3 - 0, Kargbo H. ⚽,
26', 3 - 1, Rees J. ⚽,
30', 3 - 2, Balanta A. ⚽,
33', 4 - 2, Foran T. ⚽,
42', 4 - 3, Rees J. ⚽,
45+2', 4 - 4, Balanta A. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
59', 5 - 4, Corne S. ⚽,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 9 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ National League South (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Maidstone won 3.

Maidstone is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Hornchurch has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Maidstone may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Maidstone is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Maidstone won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:8. (average 1.5:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Maidstone won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1. (average 1.3:0.3).

Outrights of English National League South for now

Maidstone: 9.77%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Maidstone	10	6	1	3	18:11	7	19

Last Results with these Odds

Maidstone United - the odds 1.88 are the expected chance of winning is 49.36%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Maidstone United
English National League South
03.04.26	Dover Athletic - Maidstone United	0:2 ✺
28.03.26	Maidstone United - Totton	3:1 ✺
21.03.26	Chesham United - Maidstone United	4:2 ✺
14.03.26	Maidstone United - Farnborough	1:0 ✺
10.03.26	Maidstone United - Dagenham & Redbridge	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WWLWW
- AFC Hornchurch
English National League South
03.04.26	Hornchurch - Dagenham & Redbridge	3:0 ✺
28.03.26	Farnborough - Hornchurch	2:2 ✺
24.03.26	Chesham United - Hornchurch	1:2 ✺
21.03.26	Hornchurch - Hemel Hempstead Town	0:1 ✺
14.03.26	Bath City - Hornchurch	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WTWLT

Latest Head to Head

English National League South
30.12.25	Hornchurch - Maidstone United	1:2
08.03.25	Hornchurch - Maidstone United	0:0
09.11.24	Maidstone United - Hornchurch	1:0
English FA Trophy
06.02.21	Hornchurch - Maidstone United	5:4
English Isthmian League Premier Division
17.01.15	Maidstone United - Hornchurch	2:0
02.09.14	Hornchurch - Maidstone United	0:2
22.03.14	Hornchurch - Maidstone United	1:0

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