Match Info

National League South - Round 44

Date: 11 April 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished


	Hornchurch		Ebbsfleet United

	1	X	2
	2.62	3.35	2.45
	2.74	3.31	2.51
	2.64	3.57	2.44	Watch
	2.7	3.2	2.45
	2.58	3.34	2.36
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.66 ↑ (2.38)	3.35 ↓ (3.64)	2.44 ↓ (2.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hornchurch
34.7%

Draw
27.5%

Ebbsfleet United
37.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

39%

25.5%

35.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.2%

25.6%

35.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hornchurch has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

Ebbsfleet United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hornchurch than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ebbsfleet United than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

Hornchurch - Ebbsfleet United Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
90', 1 - 0, Balanta A. ⚽,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ National League South (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ National League South (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Recent performances by Hornchurch have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Ebbsfleet is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Hornchurch won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1. (average 0.5:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, Hornchurch won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Ebbsfleet	12	8	4	0	29:7	22	28

Outrights of English National League South for now

Ebbsfleet: 21.26%

Last Results with these Odds

Hornchurch - the odds 2.38 are the expected chance of winning is 39.03%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Ebbsfleet United - the odds 2.62 are the expected chance of winning is 35.45%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AFC Hornchurch
English National League South
06.04.26	Maidstone United - Hornchurch	5:4 ✺
03.04.26	Hornchurch - Dagenham & Redbridge	3:0 ✺
28.03.26	Farnborough - Hornchurch	2:2 ✺
24.03.26	Chesham United - Hornchurch	1:2 ✺
21.03.26	Hornchurch - Hemel Hempstead Town	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 LWTWL
- Ebbsfleet United
English National League South
06.04.26	Ebbsfleet United - Dover Athletic	4:0 ✺
03.04.26	Tonbridge Angels - Ebbsfleet United	1:2 ✺
28.03.26	Ebbsfleet United - Slough Town	2:1 ✺
21.03.26	Ebbsfleet United - Weston-super-Mare	1:3 ✺
17.03.26	Maidenhead United - Ebbsfleet United	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

English National League South
06.09.25	Ebbsfleet United - Hornchurch	1:1
Club Friendly
01.09.20	Hornchurch - Ebbsfleet United	0:0

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