Match Info

National League South - Round 10

Date: 4 October 2025, Saturday


	Hornchurch		Horsham

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.6	3.9
	1.72	3.7	4.15
	1.78	3.77	4.22
	2.08	2.93	3.94	Watch
	1.72	3.72	4.34
	1.72	3.65	4.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.79 ↑ (1.72)	3.56 ↓ (3.8)	4.11 ↓ (4.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hornchurch
51.6%

Draw
25.9%

Horsham
22.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.5%

24.2%

22.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.5%

23.8%

21.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hornchurch has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

Horsham has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hornchurch than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Horsham than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Hornchurch - Horsham Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
50', 1 - 0, Balanta A. ⚽,
62', 1 - 1, Gibbs H. (Own goal),

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ National League and 13).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hornchurch won 3.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Hornchurch may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Hornchurch is seen as the favorite.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Hornchurch won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 15:9. (average 1.7:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Hornchurch won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:4. (average 1.8:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AFC Hornchurch
English National League South
27.09.25	Hornchurch - Dover Athletic	0:0 ✺
20.09.25	Slough Town - Hornchurch	2:5 ✺
English FA Cup
13.09.25	Peterborough Sports - Hornchurch	2:1 ✺
English National League South
06.09.25	Ebbsfleet United - Hornchurch	1:1 ✺
02.09.25	Hornchurch - Dorking Wanderers	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 TWLTW
- Horsham FC
English National League South
20.09.25	Horsham - Totton	0:2 ✺
06.09.25	Maidstone United - Horsham	0:3 ✺
02.09.25	Horsham - Eastbourne Borough	2:0 ✺
30.08.25	Horsham - Salisbury	1:1 ✺
25.08.25	Maidenhead United - Horsham	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14 LWWTL

Latest Head to Head

English Isthmian League Premier Division
06.01.24	Hornchurch - Horsham	1:1
12.08.23	Horsham - Hornchurch	1:2
01.04.23	Horsham - Hornchurch	3:2
22.10.22	Hornchurch - Horsham	3:1
25.01.22	Hornchurch - Horsham	2:0
14.08.21	Horsham - Hornchurch	0:2
24.10.20	Hornchurch - Horsham	1:1

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