Match Info

National League South - Round 19

Date: 27 September 2025, Saturday


	Hornchurch		Dover Athletic

	1	X	2
	1.58	4.05	4.95
	1.58	4.13	5.28
	1.65	3.81	4.82	Watch
	1.56	4.1	5.07
	1.52	4.15	5.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.58 ↑ (1.49)	4.05 ↓ (4.25)	5.04 ↓ (5.57)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hornchurch
58.7%

Draw
22.9%

Dover Athletic
18.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.8%

21.7%

16.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64%

21%

15.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hornchurch has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

Dover Athletic has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hornchurch than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Hornchurch, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dover Athletic than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

Hornchurch - Dover Athletic Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ National League and 8).

Hornchurch is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Dover's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Hornchurch is seen as the favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Hornchurch won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 0:2. (average 0:1).

Including home match between the teams, Hornchurch won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AFC Hornchurch
English National League South
20.09.25	Slough Town - Hornchurch	2:5 ✺
English FA Cup
13.09.25	Peterborough Sports - Hornchurch	2:1 ✺
English National League South
06.09.25	Ebbsfleet United - Hornchurch	1:1 ✺
02.09.25	Hornchurch - Dorking Wanderers	1:0 ✺
30.08.25	Hornchurch - Chippenham Town	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 WLTWW
- Dover Athletic
English National League South
20.09.25	Dover Athletic - Hampton & Richmond Borough	3:3 ✺
English FA Cup
13.09.25	Farnborough - Dover Athletic	4:1 ✺
English National League South
06.09.25	Farnborough - Dover Athletic	1:2 ✺
02.09.25	Dover Athletic - Dagenham & Redbridge	2:2 ✺
30.08.25	Dover Athletic - Maidenhead United	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 TLWTL

Latest Head to Head

English National League South
26.03.13	Dover Athletic - Hornchurch	1:0
25.08.12	Hornchurch - Dover Athletic	0:1

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