Match Info

National League South - Round 9

Date: 20 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Arbour Park (Slough)


	Slough Town		Hornchurch

	1	X	2
	3.05	3.5	2.08
	3.15	3.69	2.1
	3.50	2.77	2.33	Watch
	3.25	3.55	2.08
	3	3.4	2.16
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.19 ↑ (2.92)	3.38 ↓ (3.4)	2.15 ↓ (2.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Slough Town
29.2%

Draw
27.5%

Hornchurch
43.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.4%

27%

41.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.5%

26.2%

42.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Slough Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Hornchurch has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Slough Town than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hornchurch than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

Slough Town - Hornchurch Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
24', 1 - 0, Goddard J. ⚽,
32', 1 - 1, Wraight T. ⚽,
45', Ojemen P. 🟥,
2nd Half (1 - 4)
66', 2 - 1, Bartlett-Antwi R. ⚽,
74', 2 - 2, Wraight T. ⚽,
77', 2 - 3, Ruff C. ⚽,
87', 2 - 4, McQueen D. ⚽,
90+3', 2 - 5, Rees J. ⚽,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 16 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ National League).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Slough may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Hornchurch will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Slough won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:3. (average 2.5:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Slough won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Hornchurch - the odds 2.2 are the expected chance of winning is 41.66%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Slough Town
English FA Cup
16.09.25	Slough Town - Welling United	1:0 ✺
13.09.25	Welling United - Slough Town	1:1 ✺
English National League South
06.09.25	Torquay United - Slough Town	4:2 ✺
02.09.25	Slough Town - Chippenham Town	3:2 ✺
30.08.25	Slough Town - Enfield Town	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 WTLWT
- AFC Hornchurch
English FA Cup
13.09.25	Peterborough Sports - Hornchurch	2:1 ✺
English National League South
06.09.25	Ebbsfleet United - Hornchurch	1:1 ✺
02.09.25	Hornchurch - Dorking Wanderers	1:0 ✺
30.08.25	Hornchurch - Chippenham Town	3:0 ✺
25.08.25	Salisbury - Hornchurch	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 LTWWT

Latest Head to Head

English National League South
15.03.25	Hornchurch - Slough Town	2:3
24.08.24	Slough Town - Hornchurch	2:1

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