Match Info

National League South - Round 28

Date: 24 January 2026, Saturday

Location: The Fusion Aviation Community Stadium (Horsham)


	Horsham		Chelmsford City

	1	X	2
	2.4	3.25	2.72
	2.54	3.2	2.81
	2.45	3.39	2.74	Watch
	2.45	3	2.8
	2.51	3.14	2.83
	2.5	3.1	2.71
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.48 ↑ (2.22)	3.18 ↓ (3.51)	2.77 ↓ (2.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Horsham
37.4%

Draw
29.1%

Chelmsford City
33.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.8%

26.5%

31.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.5%

25.5%

30.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Horsham has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

Chelmsford City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Horsham than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Horsham, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chelmsford City than the current prediction. (-3%)

Horsham - Chelmsford City Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
10', 0 - 1, Crowther A. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
64', 1 - 1, Fenelon S. ⚽,
81', 2 - 1, Hammond J. ⚽,
86', 2 - 2, Barbrook H. ⚽,
89', 2 - 3, Odegah J. ⚽,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ National League South (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 13).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Chelmsford may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Horsham won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Outrights of English National League South for now

Chelmsford: 5.21% Horsham FC: 1.91%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
16	Chelmsford	9	1	8	0	9:8	1	11
17	Horsham FC	9	2	5	2	9:10	-1	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Horsham FC
English National League South
17.01.26	Worthing - Horsham	1:1 ✺
English FA Trophy
10.01.26	Leatherhead - Horsham	2:3 ✺
English National League South
06.01.26	Eastbourne Borough - Horsham	0:2 ✺
03.01.26	Horsham - Maidenhead United	1:2 ✺
30.12.25	Horsham - Farnborough	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 TWWLT
- Chelmsford City
English National League South
17.01.26	Chelmsford City - Weston-super-Mare	1:0 ✺
29.12.25	Chelmsford City - Dagenham & Redbridge	1:4 ✺
26.12.25	Enfield Town - Chelmsford City	0:4 ✺
20.12.25	Chelmsford City - Ebbsfleet United	0:1 ✺
13.12.25	Eastbourne Borough - Chelmsford City	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

English National League South
09.08.25	Chelmsford City - Horsham	1:0

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