Match Info

ENGLAND: FA TROPHY - 1/64-FINALS

Date: 18 November 2023, Saturday


	Hungerford Town		Truro City

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.6	2.3
	2.7	3.75	2.25
	2.69	3.71	2.33
	2.66	3.84	2.3
	2.6	3.6	2.3
	2.61	3.9	2.26
	2.55	3.65	2.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.62 ↑ (2.22)	3.72 ↑ (3.6)	2.29 ↓ (2.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hungerford Town
35.2%

Draw
24.7%

Truro City
40.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.9%

25.2%

33.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.3%

23.8%

32%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hungerford Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Hungerford Town's form might have worsened.

Truro City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Truro City's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hungerford Town than the current prediction. (+8.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Hungerford Town, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Truro City than the current prediction. (-8.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Truro City, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Hungerford Town - Truro City Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Hungerford won 2.

Hungerford is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Truro is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Hungerford could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Our prediction for today's Hungerford to win the game is with odds 2.58.

Last 15 head-to-head matches Hungerford won 6 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 22-19.

Including matches at home between the teams Hungerford won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 15-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hungerford Town
English Southern League South Division
14.11.23	Hungerford Town - Winchester City	2:2 ✺
11.11.23	Hungerford Town - Hanwell Town	2:2 ✺
04.11.23	Totton - Hungerford Town	1:2 ✺
English FA Trophy
28.10.23	Westfields - Hungerford Town	1:3 ✺
English Southern League South Division
24.10.23	Hungerford Town - Poole Town	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 TTWWW
- Truro City
English National League South
07.11.23	Slough Town - Truro City	4:0 ✺
28.10.23	Truro City - Tonbridge Angels	1:2 ✺
21.10.23	Aveley - Truro City	1:1 ✺
07.10.23	Worthing - Truro City	2:2 ✺
30.09.23	Truro City - Chippenham Town	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 LLTTL

Latest Head to Head

English FA Cup
18.09.21	Hungerford Town - Truro City	1:0
03.10.20	Truro City - Hungerford Town	4:0
English National League South
29.12.18	Hungerford Town - Truro City	1:4
27.08.18	Truro City - Hungerford Town	2:3
17.04.18	Truro City - Hungerford Town	2:1
18.11.17	Hungerford Town - Truro City	0:1
06.02.17	Hungerford Town - Truro City	5:0

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