Match Info

ENGLAND: National League South - Round 8

Date: 21 September 2024, Saturday


	Aveley		Truro City

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.3	1.88
	3.6	3.5	1.95
	3.68	3.45	1.94
	3.73	3.47	1.96
	3.62	3.5	1.94
	3.6	3.5	1.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.61 ↑ (2.98)	3.45 ↑ (3.42)	1.94 ↓ (2.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aveley
25.6%

Draw
26.7%

Truro City
47.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.1%

27.1%

41.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30%

28.1%

43.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aveley has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Aveley's form might have worsened.

Truro City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Truro City's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aveley than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Truro City than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

Aveley - Truro City Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and an outsider (ranked 21 in the zone Relegation and 8).

Aveley is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Truro is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Recently Truro have a series of home games.

Truro will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Aveley won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-2.

Including matches at home between the teams Aveley won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aveley
English FA Cup
14.09.24	Aveley - Royston Town	1:2 ✺
English National League South
07.09.24	Chesham United - Aveley	3:2 ✺
02.09.24	Aveley - Dorking Wanderers	3:1 ✺
31.08.24	Torquay United - Aveley	1:1 ✺
26.08.24	Aveley - Slough Town	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 LLWTL
- Truro City
English FA Cup
14.09.24	Truro City - Brackley Town	0:2 ✺
English National League South
07.09.24	Truro City - Eastbourne Borough	0:1 ✺
03.09.24	Bath City - Truro City	1:0 ✺
31.08.24	Truro City - Chelmsford City	2:1 ✺
26.08.24	Truro City - Worthing	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

English National League South
06.04.24	Truro City - Aveley	1:1
21.10.23	Aveley - Truro City	1:1

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