Match Info

Primera Division - Apertura - Round 13

Date: 1 October 2026, Thursday

Where to Watch on TV:


El-salvador	Canal 4, TCS GO


	INCA-Aruba		Municipal Limeño

	1	X	2
	3.90	3.25	1.80
	4.00	3.40	1.74
	4.26	3.52	1.81
	3.91	3.45	1.91	Watch
	4.15	3.40	1.79
	3.87	3.77	1.83	Watch
	3.70	3.45	1.79
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.97 ↓ (4.4)	3.46 ↓ (3.55)	1.81 ↑ (1.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

INCA-Aruba
23%

Draw
26.4%

Municipal Limeño
50.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.4%

25.3%

54.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.1%

24.9%

55.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

INCA-Aruba has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

Municipal Limeño has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for INCA-Aruba than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Municipal Limeño than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

INCA Aruba - Municipal Limeño Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
19', 1 - 0, Barahona J. ⚽,
35', 2 - 0, Urrutia J. ⚽,
43', 2 - 1, Argueta J. C. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

A determined lower-tier side seeks an essential result against mid-table opposition (ranked 10th and 6th in the Promotion ~ Primera Division (Apertura ~ PlayoffsQuarter~finals)).

INCA-Aruba has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Performances by Municipal Limeño have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Municipal Limeño is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head meeting, INCA-Aruba has recorded 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 0:2.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Municipal Limeno	14	5	2	7	19:19	0	17
9	Inca Aruba	14	4	4	6	12:23	-11	16

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD INCA-Aruba
El Salvador Primera Division
27.09.26	Alianza San Miguel - INCA-Aruba	1:1 ✺
18.09.26	INCA-Aruba - Fuerte San Francisco	2:1 ✺
12.09.26	Águila - INCA-Aruba	3:1 ✺
08.09.26	INCA-Aruba - Atlético Balboa	1:0 ✺
05.09.26	Isidro Metapán - INCA-Aruba	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 28.7 TWLWW
- Municipal Limeño
El Salvador Primera Division
27.09.26	Municipal Limeño - CD FAS	1:3 ✺
20.09.26	Alianza San Miguel - Municipal Limeño	3:2 ✺
13.09.26	Fuerte San Francisco - Municipal Limeño	0:2 ✺
09.09.26	Municipal Limeño - Águila	0:0 ✺
06.09.26	Atlético Balboa - Municipal Limeño	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 LLWTW

Latest Head to Head

El Salvador Primera Division
29.07.26	Municipal Limeño - INCA-Aruba	2:0

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