Match Info
Primera Division - Apertura - Round 12Date: 27 September 2026, SundayLocation: Estadio Cuscatlán (San Salvador)Where to Watch on TV: | |
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 El-salvador | TCS GO |
 Mexico | FOX Sports |
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Alianza San Miguel |
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INCA-Aruba |
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1 |
X |
2 |
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 |
1.41 |
4.20 |
6.00 |
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 |
1.39 |
4.15 |
6.3 |
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 |
1.47 |
4.24 |
6.31 |
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1.45 |
4.36 |
6.6 |
 Watch |
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1.41 |
4.15 |
6.2 |
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1.39 |
4.05 |
7.02 |
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1.4 |
4.2 |
6.2 |
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Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.42 ↓
(1.71) |
4.19 ↑
(3.3) |
6.38 ↑
(4.4) |
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- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
- The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Alianza San Miguel
64.1% | Draw
21.7% | INCA-Aruba
14.2% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Alianza San Miguel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.7%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Alianza San Miguel's performance.INCA-Aruba has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and INCA-Aruba might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alianza San Miguel than the current prediction. (-7.5%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alianza San Miguel that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for INCA-Aruba than the current prediction. (+4.7%)Alianza San Miguel - INCA Aruba Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0 
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 38', 1 - 0, Portillo J. ⚽,
- 45+15', (Penalty Awarded),
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 78', 1 - 1, Delgado J. ⚽,
Preview
A clash between a stable mid-table side and a team seeking crucial survival points (ranked 7th and 10th).Alianza has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 1 win).INCA-Aruba shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 3 wins).Alianza may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days. The betting markets point to Alianza as the clear and undisputed favorite.In the last 1 head-to-head meeting, Alianza has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 3:1.
Standings
| | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
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| 7 | Alianza FC | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 20:19 | 1 | 18 |
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| 9 | Inca Aruba | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 13:27 | -14 | 16 |
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Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Upcoming Matches
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
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