Match Info

Primera Division - Apertura - Round 11

Date: 18 September 2026, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


El-salvador	TCS GO


	INCA-Aruba		Fuerte San Francisco

	1	X	2
	2.35	2.90	2.80
	2.32	2.92	2.85
	2.45	3.02	3.1
	2.5	3.07	2.9	Watch
	2.4	2.95	2.75
	2.41	2.89	2.87
	2.32	2.95	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.39 ↓ (3.15)	2.96 ↓ (3.1)	2.87 ↑ (2.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

INCA-Aruba
37.9%

Draw
30.6%

Fuerte San Francisco
31.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.4%

28.9%

42.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.9%

26.6%

39.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

INCA-Aruba has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in INCA-Aruba's performance.

Fuerte San Francisco has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Fuerte San Francisco might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for INCA-Aruba than the current prediction. (-7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with INCA-Aruba that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fuerte San Francisco than the current prediction. (+7.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Fuerte San Francisco could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

INCA Aruba - Fuerte San Francisco Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
31', 0 - 1, Aparicio R. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
47', 1 - 1, Urrutia J. ⚽,
68', Santana V. 🟨,
85', 2 - 1, Mancia I. ⚽,

Preview

A dramatic battle between two struggling sides fighting for survival points (ranked 10th and 12th).

INCA-Aruba has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Fuerte is experiencing a dip in performance (last 5 matches: 1 win).

INCA-Aruba may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

No recent head-to-head matches have been recorded between these two competitors.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Inca Aruba	15	4	4	7	13:27	-14	16
12	Fuerte San Francisco	14	1	6	7	9:23	-14	9

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD INCA-Aruba
El Salvador Primera Division
12.09.26	Águila - INCA-Aruba	3:1 ✺
08.09.26	INCA-Aruba - Atlético Balboa	1:0 ✺
05.09.26	Isidro Metapán - INCA-Aruba	0:1 ✺
28.08.26	INCA-Aruba - Cacahuatique	1:1 ✺
21.08.26	Inter Santa Tecla - INCA-Aruba	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.8 LWWTL
- CD Fuerte San Francisco
El Salvador Primera Division
13.09.26	Fuerte San Francisco - Municipal Limeño	0:2 ✺
05.09.26	Fuerte San Francisco - CD FAS	0:1 ✺
30.08.26	Águila - Fuerte San Francisco	4:1 ✺
23.08.26	Atlético Balboa - Fuerte San Francisco	1:0 ✺
15.08.26	Fuerte San Francisco - Isidro Metapán	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 LLLLW

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